If all goes well for the Toronto Blue Jays, they'll be playing in the American League Championship Series on election night.
That potential distraction provides a little extra motivation for federal parties to try to get their supporters out to advance polls that will run for four straight days starting on Friday – not that they seem to need it.
While overall voter turnout only went up slightly in the 2011 federal election – after a record low in 2008 – early voting increased by a whopping 35 per cent. That's partly to do with advance polls being open for longer than they used to be, but also because parties are increasingly aggressive in trying to get voters to make the most of that opportunity.
But as their campaigns turn into get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations over Thanksgiving weekend, the parties won't invest equal effort in mobilizing all their supporters. Instead, they'll be heavily targeting specific types. With that in mind, a few reasons you might find yourself under lots of pressure to interrupt your turkey preparations to cast a ballot.
You have a spotty voting record
Parties' biggest GOTV fixation is on people they're pretty sure will vote for them if they vote for anyone, but who are shown by available data to skip voting altogether in some elections. And there is a school of thought that highlighting choice in when to vote ( i.e., the options other than election day) can be a big help.
To that end, parties have been trying – mostly through digital communications and phone calls – to get would-be supporters to commit to a "voting plan" by telling them the different times they could go to the polls and asking them to choose one, then reminding them of that commitment when the time comes.
"What our friends in Chicago have told us is that it's a psychological thing," one NDP official said recently of advice from U.S. Democrats who worked on Barack Obama's campaigns. "If people say they're going to vote, they're likelier to do it."
For voters who fit the "likely supporter/unreliable voter" profile but haven't indicated voting-time intentions in advance, other considerations will affect how much they're targeted this weekend – geography high among them.
You live in the right neighbourhood
In preparing for this weekend, parties have looked closely at where advance poll locations will be, relative to the (much more plentiful) poll locations on election day.
Particularly in more spread-out rural ridings, it makes little sense to encourage someone to drive a long distance to vote early rather than a relatively short one on October 19.
Conversely, if there's an urban or suburban neighbourhood or residential complex where parties are pretty sure most voters will vote for them if they vote at all, and the advance poll location is convenient, volunteers may sweep through this weekend and try to pull out anyone and everyone who answers the door.
You've voted in advance polls before
Parties keep tabs on which supporters have voted early previously, and because political organizers tend to be big believers in past behaviour being a future indicator, they'll encourage them to do likewise again.
This may particularly be the case with the Conservatives, who have the best records from the last few elections. Relying more heavily than the other parties on phone banks (as opposed to in-person canvassing) for their GOTV, the Tories might call pretty much every identified supporter who used an advance poll in 2011.
You might switch allegiances before election day
After the 2011 election, Liberals could be heard lamenting that they didn't get more voters out in advance. If they had, it could have slightly mitigated the wave away from them and toward the NDP in the campaign's final stretch, allowing them to keep a few more ridings.
Given current polling trends, and the possibility of anti-Conservative voters making a last-minute shift to the Liberals, it looks as though the NDP has the greatest incentive to lock up votes now. To the extent that their analytics allow them to guess which supporters they're most at risk of losing, the New Democrats should be all over them this weekend.
You might be willing to help out
If you've indicated any willingness whatsoever to volunteer for your candidate of choice, they'll be trying to get your help this weekend. And even if you take a pass on that, they'll try to make sure you at least cast your own ballot in advance.
For all of the get-out-the-vote efforts this weekend, after all, it will really be all hands on deck on October 19. And any time you spend that day going to your local polling station could otherwise be used encouraging others to do likewise.
Adam Radwanski