Blustery winter weather cooled Toronto's resale housing market in the first three months of the year, but pockets such as Old Mill and Trinity Bellwoods stayed sheltered in their own hothouse micro-climates.
Meanwhile, most of the rest of Toronto saw more tepid price increases or - in some cases - outright declines.
Across the Greater Toronto Area, the average price increased 4.5 per cent to $379,006 in the first quarter, compared with the same period last year, according to data from the Toronto Real Estate Board.
The number of single-family homes that changed hands dipped to 17,521 in the first three months of 2008, compared with 20,463 transactions in the same period last year.
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Amid the art installations and retro lounges of Queen Street West, resale house prices in the urban Trinity Bellwood neighbourhood jumped 29.4 per cent in the first quarter, compared with the same period last year.
To the west, prices in the Old Mill area near the banks of the Humber River rose 13.2 per cent from the same time last year.
And to the east, Scarborough Village was the hot spot, with the average price up 11 per cent over the average in the first three months of 2007.
Other trend-defying neighbourhoods include Allenby, Beaconsfield, Hillcrest and Parkdale.
CHILL CONTINUES
Meanwhile, the chill that permeated the market in the opening months of 2008 appears to have continued into the spring: The GTA resale housing market saw 3,955 homes change hands in the first half of April, down 5 per cent from the same period last year, TREB reported.
And across Canada, the resale market is "sound but cooling," says Cal Lindberg, president of the Ottawa-based Canadian Real Estate Association.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, existing home sales in Canada's major markets in the first quarter of 2008 declined by 7.1 per cent, compared with the previous quarter, and by 10.6 per cent from the same period the previous year, to 81,747 units, CREA reports.
Changes in the average resale price in Toronto varied widely by neighbourhood.
Toronto pockets where the average price fell include Richview, with a slide of 14.3 per cent, Armour Heights with a 33.8-per-cent tumble, Graydon Hall with a 41.2-per-cent decline and Lawrence Manor with a 21-per-cent fall. In the east end, L'Amoureux fell 7.23 per cent while Leslieville jumped 21 per cent.
Price changes were recorded across the price spectrum: In the tony market of Forest Hill, for example, the average price fell 25.1 per cent to $825,439.
SKITTISH SELLERS?
But with so few houses changing hands in the first quarter, one house can skew all of the numbers, says real estate agent Rick Johnston of Re/Max West Realty Inc.
Mr. Johnston says that houses that are in good condition and priced well are still selling quickly. But like many agents, he's a bit mystified as to why more sellers aren't putting their houses on the market.
Mr. Johnston says the changing market conditions and recent gloomy newspaper headlines may have people feeling skittish about choosing the right time to list their property.
"People aren't quite certain, so they hold off."
Mr. Johnston advises clients to list at a price that they would be willing to accept because they might not get the bidding wars that pushed prices far above the asking price in previous seasons.
Mr. Johnston points out that that strategy is always risky anyway, because other houses nearby could come on the market at the same time. Suddenly, if three houses are competing for buyers, the potential for multiple bids is reduced.
"Even in a strong, strong market, you never know."
Mr. Johnston expects the Toronto housing market to remain fairly robust.
"Interest rates are low, the Toronto economy is strong and there are still people with money out there, so there's really no reason for it to deflate just yet."
SCARCITY AT THE HIGH END
Real estate agent Janet Lindsay of Chestnut Park Real Estate Ltd. says she is not seeing a lot of houses coming up for sale at the high end of the range - $2-million and up.
"We definitely have buyers looking, but we don't have a lot of product."
Ms. Lindsay speculates that many of the hold-out sellers may be middle-aged homeowners who have bought condominiums in some of the high-end projects going up in Toronto. Since the buildings won't be finished for a couple of years, those owners may be holding on to their houses until the new condo is ready.
Other potential sellers may be worried about the stock market, she suggests. If they are feeling uncertain about financial markets, they may decided to hold on to their solid, bricks-and-mortar asset.
Ms. Lindsay adds that prospective buyers who are shopping at the high end of the market are looking for houses that are renovated and fluffed.
"If it's all done up, it doesn't last long."
Ms. Lindsay says she advises clients who are selling to set a realistic asking price, no matter the market conditions. She recommends against setting an artificially low price in order to engender a bidding war.
"You should never list your house at a price you wouldn't accept."
Wilfred Veinot, agent with Sutton Group Partners Realty Inc. who has been selling real estate since 1990, also says the current -market has him stumped.
"This spring is the most interesting spring - if that is the word to use - that I've seen."
Taxes, blizzards to blame
He points out that there was a flurry of activity in the early part of the year as buyers scrambled to avoid paying the new Toronto land-transfer tax before it came into effect.
Then there was a lull when people who were miffed at the tax dropped out of the market.
"Most people are over the tax now," he says, because buyers will pay it if they can afford it.
Mr. Veinot says problems for real estate agents were compounded by the blizzards that regularly blew through Toronto and left mountains of snow on the streets. People who want to pop into an open house often pull their vehicles up on the sidewalk, he notes.
"How could you get on the sidewalk?" he asks. "I didn't show a house for a month."
Mr. Veinot says the better weather has brought increased activity but still not the kind of frenzy he's seen in the past.
He has seen many houses listed with offers to be accepted at a set time and date. Even when bids roll in above the asking price, vendors sometimes reject them because they're not far enough beyond the asking price.
Mr. Veinot says those sorts of tactics are frustrating for potential buyers - especially if they've paid for a home inspection and find their bid rejected. "That just pisses everyone off to no end."
PRICES CAN'T RISE FOREVER
He recommends that sellers list their houses with the lowest asking price they would be willing to accept. "If we see more than that, it's a bonus."
Mr. Veinot says he's glad to see an end to the dizzying bidding wars of the past.
"They couldn't keep going up the way they were - that was just out of control. One hundred thousand over asking - where is that coming from?" he says of some of the more extreme contests.
Still, he sees lots of prospective buyers out there who are eager to own real estate.
"It's a very interesting market for everybody because nobody can really put their finger on what is going on."
