Would-be spoilers emerge from the left and the right

JOHN IBBITSON

WASHINGTON From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

You've heard of Ralph Nader. Now get ready for Bob Barr.

Mr. Nader and Mr. Barr are running for president from opposite ends of the political spectrum. In 2000, Mr. Nader helped make George W. Bush president by taking 2.73 per cent of the popular vote, mostly at the expense of Democratic nominee Al Gore.

The famed consumer activist is in the race again this year, even though his campaign tanked in 2004, in part because the Democrats were able to keep him off the ballot in many states.

This year, however, it's the Republicans who are nervous. They fear that Mr. Barr, the presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party, could elect Democratic nominee Barack Obama by stealing votes from Republican candidate John McCain.

Mr. Barr is on the ballot in 30 states, and has set his sights on virtually all the rest.

In most elections, the Libertarians have given new meaning to fringe. A motley collection of anarchists, conspiracy theorists and sci-fi enthusiasts who share only a passionate commitment to reducing the size and power of government, their big year was 1980, when Edward Clark raked in 1.06 per cent of the popular vote. In 2004, they polled 0.32 per cent, compared with 0.38 per cent for Mr. Nader.

But that could be about to change. Mr. Barr is actually Somebody. From 1994 till 2003, he represented Georgia's 7th District in Congress. He led a charge to impeach former president Bill Clinton before the Monica Lewinsky affair came to light. In 2004, he left the Republican Party, in part over his new-found opposition to the Iraq war.

A recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has Mr. Nader at 4 per cent and Mr. Barr at 3 per cent (with Mr. Obama at 48 per cent and Mr. McCain at 33 per cent). If previous trends hold true, support for both Mr. Barr and Mr. Nader is likely to evaporate as the election approaches.

But what worries many Republicans is that Mr. Barr is polling at 8 per cent in his home state of Georgia, which the Democrats have identified as a possible gain this year. If Mr. Barr could hold on to even half of that vote, he could drain away enough Republicans to hand the state to the Democrats.

“If Barr were to get 2 per cent in most states, our belief is he'll get 4 per cent here,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters last week, referring to Georgia, “most of it coming out of McCain's hide.”

“Bob could be the Ralph Nader of 2008,” Dan Schnur, a GOP consultant, agreed.

Of course, Mr. Nader would like to be the Ralph Nader of 2008. He has targeted Mr. Obama, accusing him of fraudulently claiming to champion the poor, when he is really just a typical beholden-to-big-business Democrat.

Over on the right, Mr. Barr has high hopes of poaching many of the 1.1 million voters who came out to support Ron Paul in his bid for the Republican nomination. Mr. Paul once ran as the Libertarian presidential candidate, but this year went after the Republican nomination.

Mr. Paul, however, isn't endorsing anyone, although he is determined to cause Mr. McCain as much grief as possible.

The Texas congressman refused to drop out of the Republican race, even after Mr. McCain had sewn up the nomination. While no one was watching, Mr. Paul took 22 per cent of the vote in Montana, 17 per cent in South Dakota and 14 per cent in New Mexico, on the final day of the Republican primaries.

To demonstrate his strength, Mr. Paul is hoping to pack 11,000 of his supporters into a Minneapolis arena on Sept. 2, smack in the middle of the Republican convention, which is being held right next door in St. Paul.

Even Mr. Nader is chasing after Paul supporters, reminding them that he, too, has long opposed the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act, the Bush administration's Draconian security legislation.

Further proof, if any were needed, that the far left and the far right ultimately meet.

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