John Edwards wants to punish Corporate America. John McCain would slash corporate tax rates. Mitt Romney is talking up his impressive business résumé.
With the U.S. economy flirting with recession, the race to succeed President George W. Bush is suddenly all about the economy. And that could benefit candidates, such as Hillary Clinton, who have a lot of experience, while making life uncomfortable for the entire Republican field.
“The party in power has never won an election during a recession,” pointed out Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University in Washington. “It's very hard for the party in power to win in a bad economy.”
Mr. Bush's call yesterday for a stimulus package of up to $150-billion (U.S.) has confirmed that the race for the White House now hinges on who can persuade Americans they have the right stuff to save the faltering economy.
Mr. Bush's plan, quickly welcomed by most of the presidential candidates, would include instant tax rebates to individuals and businesses.
Details must still be negotiated with the Democrat-held Congress.
“The advantage clearly goes to the Democrats,” agreed pollster Dick Bennett of New Hampshire-based American Research Group. “The economy is one more thing that isn't working under the current regime. The problem for the Republicans is that they're the party that owns George W. Bush.”
The housing meltdown, soaring fuel costs and Wall Street's messy retreat have pushed the economy decisively past Iraq as the most pressing issue on the minds of U.S. voters.
“I don't think any of the candidates expected the economy to be an issue, and so they campaigned on other things,” Mr. Bennett said. “The voters are demanding that the candidates pay attention and address the economic issue.”
Until as late as November, most national polls showed the Iraq war as the dominant electoral issue, ahead of health care, the economy and immigration.
Until recently, the leading Republican hopefuls – Mr. McCain, Mr. Romney, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson – had seemed content to burnish their credentials on core conservative issues, including social values, immigration and small government.
Now, that doesn't seem like a winning strategy.
“Everyone is talking about the R-word now,” said pollster Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.
“The economy will now dominate the election in a major way, and that's a serious issue for the Republicans, particularly if things get worse.”
Mr. Madonna, who oversees the statewide Franklin & Marshall poll, said his data show that on economic issues voters trust Ms. Clinton, a U.S. Senator and former first lady, over either Barack Obama or Mr. Edwards.
Ms. Clinton issued a statement yesterday on Mr. Bush's proposal: “For the White House to propose spending over $100-billion to jump start the economy, while shortchanging assistance to the 50 million families who are struggling the most and are most likely to inject those funds into the economy makes no sense.”
Mr. Edwards has talked about economic issues more than any candidate. But his anti-corporate and anti-trade message has limited appeal, Mr. Madonna said.
Mr. Lichtman, the historian, said Mr. Obama's “change” message might gain traction, if he succeeds in making this about the economy.
On the Republican side, the clear edge goes to Mr. Romney, a Harvard University MBA and founder of takeover firm Bain Capital, he said.
