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Confused about who's up and who's down in the U.S. presidential race? Get in line.

A month into the voting and there still isn't a Republican or Democratic nominee. Arguably, there aren't even clear front-runners.

Take heart, Tuesday - the much-anticipated Super Tuesday - should make everything a lot clearer. Or not.

On Feb. 5, millions of voters in 24 states will go to the polls. Up for grabs on that single day are 52 per cent of all the Republican delegates and 41 per cent of Democratic delegates to the parties' respective leadership conventions.

Ordinarily, the sheer volume of delegates in play on Super Tuesday is enough to push a candidate over the top, making the remaining primaries pretty meaningless.

But this is no ordinary year. An accelerated primary schedule, complex new delegate rules (which confusingly vary between the parties and from state to state), combined with extremely tight two-way races in both parties, are giving odds-makers and pundits fits.

This isn't like Sunday's Super Bowl, where one team wins all the spoils.

The process is particularly challenging for the candidates, who must now shift from a series of inconclusive one-off contests in half a dozen states to full-blown - and costly - national campaigns. What worked for a candidate in Iowa or Nevada may have little relevance in New York or California, two of the big states in play next week.

Many of the leading candidates announced major national TV ad blitzes this week. Republican Mitt Romney said he expects to spend as much as $7-million (U.S.) before Tuesday. And Democrat Hillary Clinton is running three new ads that tout her as the safe choice for the Democrats in unsettling economic times. Her rival, Barack Obama, is advertising in all Feb. 5 states except Oklahoma and his home state of Illinois. He also announced yesterday that he will start advertising in states that hold primaries after Feb. 5, including Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine, Maryland, Virginia and also in Washington, D.C.

The race for the Republican nomination is much closer to the finish line, particularly with former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani out of the hunt. And it could be all but over next week, perhaps leaving the crown to Arizona Senator John McCain, who polls suggest is ahead of Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, in most states.

All the money in the world can't save Mr. Romney now, argued Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "I think he knows what's coming," he said. "We'll see what he actually spends."

The race is far from done on the Democratic side, where Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama continue to battle for delegates in virtually every state.

During a debate last night at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles, home of the Academy Awards, the two candidates agreed on one thing: One of them will become president in 2009.

Ms. Clinton drew laughter from the crowd when asked about the decades-long Bush-Clinton family control of the White House. "It did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush," she said.

Befitting a Hollywood audience, among the stars in the crowd were Diane Keaton, Jason Alexander, Pierce Brosnan, Rob Reiner and Stevie Wonder.

"The prospect that we come out of the week with a de facto nominee on the Democratic side is very slim," said Stephen Hess, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has been watching U.S. elections for more than 50 years.

Even the two Democratic camps acknowledge Super Tuesday likely won't be the end of the road.

"My guess is one of us will be ahead, but not decisively, and one of us will be behind, but not decisively," David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama, told The New York Times this week.

"And this will go on for some time."

So, even if Mr. Obama is behind in Ms. Clinton's home state of New York or in California, he'll target districts where he knows he can score some delegates, according to Mr. Sabato. Likewise, Ms. Clinton can't afford to give entirely up on Mr. Obama's home state of Illinois.

You can blame the intricacies of a primary voting system that's controlled by the parties, and more specifically, by the party organizations within states.

Generally speaking, the Democrats apportion their delegates proportionately. That means that if Ms. Clinton wins 63 per cent of the vote in a state, she gets the same percentage of delegates. But in some states (including California), the apportioning is done district by district, not state-wide. So theoretically, Ms. Clinton could win the California popular vote on Tuesday but emerge with fewer delegates.

Then, factor in the impact of so-called super delegates (members of Congress, state governors and the like), and the potential outcomes are varied and unpredictable. Super delegates may be publicly committed to a candidate. But they aren't obliged to stay committed.

They're just dating, not yet married.

This isn't just theoretical nonsense. The party had a preview in the Nevada caucuses, where Ms. Clinton won the popular vote, but Mr. Obama wound up with one more delegate (13 to 12).

That means that Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton can't afford to abandon any state, even if they're behind in the polls somewhere.

The ground war, as much as the air war, could determine who wins on the Democratic side, according to the Brookings Institution's Mr. Hess. He said the winner could be the one who's best at old-style campaigning.

The Republicans have a very different system in most, but not all states. In their contests, it's generally winner take all, as it was in Florida. Mr. McCain captured the state, so he captured all the delegates.

That's why Super Tuesday is likely make or break for Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney.

And the candidate with the clear edge is Mr. McCain, who this week picked up endorsements that could help him in the two states with the most delegates - New York (Mr. Giuliani) and California (Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger).

The runup to Super Tuesday

POLL POSITIONS

Twenty-four states will hold presidential primaries and caucuses on Tuesday. Democrats allot delegates proportionally whereas most

of the Republican contests use a winner-take-all method: in both cases, district delegates are apportioned by results of each Congressional district and statewide delegates by the state vote. All Republican delegates from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut go to the statewide winner.

The following are the most recent polls available in some states with the largest number of delegates:

DEMOCRATS

Polls	Margin					ALL OTHER
Conducted	of error	Delegates***	CLINTON	OBAMA	RESPONSES+
Jan. 23-27	+/- 4%	Calif.	370	** 49%	* 32%	* 19%
Jan. 23-26	+/- 5	N.Y.	232	** 56	* 28	* 16
Jan. 21-24	+/- 4.5	Ill.	153	* 22	** 51	* 27
Jan. 15-22	+/- 5	N.J.	107	** 49	* 32	* 19
Jan. 7-10	+/- 5	Ga.	87	* 33	** 36	* 31
Jan. 21-24	+/- 4.5	Mo.	72	** 44	* 31	* 25
Jan. 19-21	+/- 5	Tenn.	68	** 34	* 20	* 46
Jan. 20-24	+/- 6	Ariz.	56	** 38	* 32	* 30
Jan. 7-15	+/- 5	Ala.	52	** 31	* 28	* 41
Jan. 9-17	+/- 5	Conn.	48	** 41	* 27	* 32
KEY ***Only pledged delegates shown ** Leading * Trailing + Includes those with no responses. Edwards is included in All Other Responses

REPUBLICANS

Polls						ALL OTHER
Conducted	Delegates***	McCAIN	ROMNEY	HUCKABEE	RESPONSES+
Jan. 23-27	Calif.	173	**39%	* 26%	* 11%	* 14%
Jan. 23-26	N.Y.	101	** 40	* 17	* 11	* 32
Jan. 21-24	Ill.	70	** 31	* 20	* 11	* 38
Jan. 15-22	N.J.	52	** 29	* 14	* 9	* 48
Jan. 7-10	Ga.	72	* 18	* 14	** 31	* 37
Jan. 21-24	Mo.	58	** 31	* 21	* 25	* 23
Jan. 19-21	Tenn.	55	* 12	* 7	** 24	* 57
Jan. 20-24	Ariz.	53	** 39	* 26	* 9	* 26
Jan. 7-15	Ala.	48	* 22	* 8	** 25	* 45
Jan. 9-17	Conn.	30	** 39	* 11	* 8	* 42
KEY *** Only pledged delegates shown ** Leading * Trailing + Includes those with no responses. Giuliani included in All Other Responses

THE AD WAR SO FAR

Frequency of advertisements in major television markets by the two leading Democrats, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Senator Barack Obama, from Jan. 14-27. The Republican candidates focused mostly on South Carolina and Florida during that period.

CLINTON

4,065 ads shown

$3-million spent

Top states: California (1,979 ads);

Arizona (642); Tennessee (310)

Most common ad was about health care, foreclosures and gas prices.

OBAMA

4,474 ads shown

$4.3-million spent

Top states: Arizona (951 ads);

Georgia (661); Missouri (564)

Most common ad was about health care, tax cuts and ending the war in Iraq.

SOURCES: REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE; DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE; TNS MEDIA INTELLIGENCE/CMAG (AD DATA); CNN/POLITICO/LOS ANGELES TIMES; GALLUP/USA TODAY; RESEARCH 2000; QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY; MASON-DIXON; RESEARCH 2000; CRAWFORD, JOHNSON & NORTHCOTT; BEHAVIOR RESEARCH CENTER; UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA; UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT