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The push for democratic reform in Canada, a rising tide for the past decade, faces a critical test in next week's Ontario election, in which voters will decide whether to adopt a form of proportional representation.

The referendum asks if Ontario should replace the traditional first-past-the-post system used throughout the country with a new system that would more fairly represent the popular vote.

“If it passes, it will be one of the very, very few examples in the world where citizens have made a change in how they elect politicians,” said Jonathan Rose, an associate professor in political science at Queen's University and academic director for the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform, the group that hatched the idea of MMP. He said the referendum is “being watched closely around the world.”

The referendum is to be held in conjunction with the Oct. 10 legislative election.

It will ask voters if they want to adopt the mixed-member proportional (MMP) system, where the number of ridings are reduced to 90 and candidates would be elected exactly as they are now. But another 39 seats would be based on a second ballot question in which voters select their political party of choice. In this way, seat counts would be more in line with the popular support of each party.

If the MMP system had already been in place, Ontario probably would not have had a majority government for the past two decades, if not for the past 50 years.

Simulations done by Vote For MMP, a citizens group supporting the change, shows that David Peterson's Liberals would have likely formed a very close majority in 1987, holding 66 of 129 seats. And previous to that, it would have been Leslie Frost's Conservative government in 1951 and 1955 controlling the reins, with 79 and 76 seats, respectively.

The group stresses that these figures are by no means definitive, because if people have the option, they may vote for a particular candidate in their riding, but a different party altogether on the second part of their ballot. But it does clearly show that majority governments would be few and far between under the MMP system.

To calculate the results, the group allocated 90 seats to parties in the same proportion as seats actually won. The other 39 seats were allocated based on the proportion of popular votes won by parties that met the minimum three-per-cent threshold.

“We would have probably seen majority coalitions formed that would have likely implemented policies that were closer to what a majority of Ontarians wanted,” said Joe Murray, president of the group.

Critics argue that parties would be able to stack their teams with loyalists to fill the 39 remaining seats, and these individuals would not necessarily have a direct responsibility to voters.

MMP was rejected in Prince Edward Island in a 2005 referendum.

And while 57 per cent of British Columbia residents voted for another form of electoral reform, that was short of the 60-per-cent requirement.

To become law in Ontario, the referendum would have to be approved by at least 60 per cent of the votes cast and 50 per cent of the voters in 64 electoral districts.

The Yes side is holding an awareness campaign on the steps of Queen's Park Tuesday morning.

Speakers include former premier Bob Rae and former NDP leader Ed Broadbent.