Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory's proposal to fund faith-based schools has inflicted enormous damage on his party, leaving it trailing 15 points behind the Liberals on the eve of tomorrow's election, according to a new poll.
Only 27 per cent of voters support the Conservatives, making it all but certain that Dalton McGuinty's Liberals, at 42 per cent, will win a second majority, says the Strategic Counsel survey conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV.
The Liberal lead is not due to a growth in their popularity, but because support for the Conservatives has fallen to near historic lows. The survey says the biggest beneficiaries are the province's second-tier parties - the New Democrats and Greens - that are attracting the "protest vote," mainly outside the Toronto area.
"As Ontarians became more engaged in the election, they clearly turned away from the PCs," said Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner at the Strategic Counsel. "The issue of education and religion has totally exploded and been devastating to the PC campaign."
However, there is some potential for the Conservatives to do better than the numbers suggest on election day, the poll says, because Conservative supporters are disproportionately older and therefore more likely to vote.
Nevertheless, the survey done over the Thanksgiving weekend marks a stunning reversal of fortune for Mr. Tory, who has personally paid a political price for initially promoting the funding of all religious schools and then backing off last Monday by saying he would put the matter to a free vote in the legislature should he become premier.
His popularity now trails that of Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty, with only 30 per cent of voters saying he would be the best premier, compared with 36 per cent for his rival. This is a reversal from a poll done by Strategic Counsel three weeks ago, when Mr. Tory was the No. 1 choice.
The Conservative Leader has attempted to make Mr. McGuinty's broken promises the defining issue of the campaign. Instead, his decision to push funding for all religious schools amid widespread opposition has become dominant, virtually drowning out everything else.
Mr. Tory went into the campaign with a clear advantage over his rival. Mr. McGuinty was viewed as vulnerable for breaking a number of pledges he had made during the 2003 campaign, including the $2.6-billion annual health premium he introduced in 2004 after promising not to raise taxes.
But the Liberals ran a "highly disciplined and effective campaign by stoking the fires" on the school issue, the survey says. Mr. McGuinty campaigned vigorously against the policy, which he said would threaten the stability of the public education system.
The strategy appears to have worked. Of those polled, 49 per cent said the pledge to fund faith-based schools was the issue they were most concerned about, while only 39 per cent cited Mr. McGuinty's broken promises.
The furor over faith-based schools has translated into a seven-point decline in support for the Conservatives over the past three weeks. While support for the Liberals has barely budged, climbing just two points, the school issue has driven voters into the arms of the New Democrats and Greens.
The New Democrats' support climbed three points to 19 per cent, an improvement from the 14.7 per cent of the vote the party received in the 2003 election when it elected just seven MPPs. Party strategists are focusing their hopes on winning more seats in Northwestern Ontario, Hamilton, Toronto and Windsor.
Both the New Democratic and Green parties are benefiting from a desire for change that is particularly strong outside Toronto, the survey says. Economically struggling areas of Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario have been hit hard by job losses in the manufacturing sector and by families and businesses deciding to leave for fresh opportunity.
