KAREN HOWLETT
TORONTO — From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Published on Tuesday, Oct. 09, 2007 5:50AM EDT Last updated on Friday, Apr. 03, 2009 11:46AM EDT
Ontario's experiment with democratic reform is likely headed for defeat tomorrow, with a new poll suggesting that voters are divided over a proposal to change the way the province elects its politicians.
A survey conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV says 52 per cent will vote against a proposal in a referendum to be held in conjunction with the provincial election. The proposal for a new electoral system needs 60-per-cent approval to pass.
"It's highly unlikely we're going to see a change in our electoral system," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner of the Strategic Counsel, said in an interview.
The referendum will ask voters whether they want to replace the existing first-past-the-post system for electing legislators with a new system known as mixed-member proportional.
Three-quarters of those polled say they know about the proposal, up from 53 per cent in a survey done by the Strategic Counsel three weeks ago. However, the number of Ontarians in favour of the change had fallen to 48 per cent from 54 per cent over that same period. What's really intriguing about the Strategic Counsel survey is the finding that the more Ontarians know about the proposed change, the more inclined they are to vote against it, Mr. Woolstencroft said.
Polls conducted in British Columbia during a 2005 referendum on electoral reform suggest that voters who know little about the issue or are undecided will end up voting against the proposal.
Electoral reform has also emerged as one of the few issues where there is a significant generational gap in the election, the survey says. Support for changing the system is strongest among those between the ages of 18 and 34, with 67 per cent in favour. By contrast, those over 50 are most opposed at 67 per cent.
Among the three main party leaders, New Democratic Leader Howard Hampton is the only one urging Ontarians to vote in favour of the MMP proposal. Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty has remained neutral. The Progressive Conservative Party recently said it supports the existing electoral system.
PC Leader John Tory has said MMP will increase the influence and power of a political party and its leader while decreasing the independence of members of the legislature.
The members of a citizens assembly on electoral reform have accused Elections Ontario of bungling a campaign to boost awareness of the referendum.
"If you want benign information, that's exactly what we got," said Arita Droog, part of the 103-member citizens assembly that recommended the alternative way of electing politicians in Ontario.
Elections Ontario has been trying to raise awareness about the electoral reform question since August through a $6.8-million public education campaign.
The survey of 850 Ontarians was conducted Saturday and Sunday and is considered accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
With a report from The Canadian Press
Referendum know-how
Chances of electoral reform getting public approval are still unclear.
How much do Ontarians know about the proposed new electoral system?
| A lot | A little | Nothing at all | DK/NA/Ref | |
| Sept. 10-13, 2007 | 12% | 41% | 47% | <1% |
| Oct. 6-7, 2007 | 24% | 51% | 4% | 1% |
How do Ontarians intend to vote in the referendum?
| For proposed changes | Against proposed changes | Undecided | DK/NA/Ref/ Won't vote | |
| Sept. 10-13, 2007 | 27% | 23% | 29% | 21% |
| Oct. 6-7, 2007 | 32% | 35% | 22% | 11% |
SOURCE: THE STRATEGIC COUNSEL
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