The Road to the World Series

Globe and Mail Update

After an exciting weekend of action, Major League Baseball's post-season has been finalized.

The opening round looks like this:

National League: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers; St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres

American League: New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers; Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics.

The 2006 season has been full of surprises, including the resurgence of the Tigers, and disappointments, such as the collapse of the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, the last two World Series champions. The postseason will likely bring similar uncertainty with the field appearing wide open in both leagues.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays head home on Sunday after a weekend series with the New York Yankees, having shown improvement from 2005 but still falling short of making an impact in the race for a playoff spot. Can 2006 be deemed as success after the club leap-frogged Boston late to finish second in the AL East?

On Monday at 11 a.m. EDT, Globe baseball reporters Jeff Blair and Larry Millson will join us for an on-line discussion to review the regular season and preview the race toward the World Series.

Mr. Blair will participate from New York City, where he'll follow the fortunes of both the Mets and Yankees as the city dreams of another Subway Series. However, there are several stumbling blocks that may prevent a rematch of the 2000 World Series, including the Mets' ability to deal with the loss of ace Pedro Martinez and whether the star-laden Yankees can finally stay healthy and live up to their lofty billing.

Mr. Millson is set to head to Minneapolis later on Monday to cover the series between the Twins and Oakland. He's currently in Detroit, where he watched the newlook Tigers for the past week.

Mr. Millson and Mr. Blair were online earlier, answering questions from readers.

Editor's Note: globeandmail.com editors will read and allow or reject each question/comment. Comments/questions may be edited for length or clarity. We will not publish questions/comments that include personal attacks on participants in these discussions, that make false or unsubstantiated allegations, that purport to quote people or reports where the purported quote or fact cannot be easily verified, or questions/comments that include vulgar language or libellous statements. Preference will be given to readers who submit questions/comments using their full name and home town, rather than a pseudonym.

David Leeder, Sports Editor, globeandmail.com: Welcome, Jeff and Larry, and thanks for joining us today to take questions from the readers of globeandmail.com. We've already received quite a diverse mix of questions and comments, so let's get started right away.

R.J. from Pickering, Ont., writes: Obvious first question. Who do you like to win it all, and why?

Larry Millson writes: The easy pick would be the Yankees but the more fun pick is the Twins who have come from nowhere in June and will be bolstered by whatever injured starter Brad Radke can give them in the playoffs. They will have rested Cy Young probable Johan Santana primed a ready and in Joe Nathan they have probably game's dominant closer at this time. If Francisco Liriano were able to pitch, this would be a stronger pick. But I love the way the Twins play the game. This pick may be more from the heart, but so be it.

Jeff Blair writes: R.J., I picked the Athletics to beat the Mets earlier this year. I'm sticking with the Athletics ... not sure about the Mets because of their injury problems. But considering how bad the NL is, they picked a good year to have Pedro get hurt.

Darren Yourk from Port Colborne, Ont., writes: How realistic is it to believe Vernon Wells will be in a Jays uniform on opening day next year? Who is more likely to bounce back next year Josh Towers or Russ Adams?

Jeff Blair writes: Darren, I think it's almost a certainty that Wells will be back - with or without an extension. The signals about the extension have been better in the past two weeks than earlier in the year, because I think hearing Rangers owner Tom Hicks calling out Wells's friend Michael Young has Vernon thinking twice about whether he really wants to play at home in Texas in two years. It's going to take $15 million per year to get the deal done. The Blue Jays, I'm told, will pay that because Wells has shown himself to be irreplacable. Another factor working in the Blue Jays favor is at Wells' age, this won't be his last contract. If he's happy here - verbal and body language suggests it is - there's no reason to not take the deal. But even if he doesn't sign, a team that has designs on contending could do worse than having a motivated Wells in their lineup.

As for Towers and Adams ... well, do you really care? If Towers makes the team out of spring training, it's going to be a long season .....

Larry Millson writes: Wells will be back next year. Adams.

R. Carriere from the Maritimes writes: Good Morning guys. In baseball, it's always stated that good pitching will beat good hiting. That said, looking at the Yankees line-up from 1-9, I have never seen power and hitting like that! Because their pitching is suspect, can this all-star line-up make other teams pitching immaterial?

Larry Millson writes: The shorter the series, usually the more good pitching has the advantage. There are a few of those guys in the Yankee lineup who are coming off injuries that have kept them out for long periods so you have to wonder how well they'll do against top pitching. Yes, the Yankees will need some of their pitchers to step up.

Jeff Blair writes: Oakland's pitching can beat them, especially if Rich Harden is healthy. Larry did a good piece a couple of weeks ago on Mariano Rivera and his two-inning saves and it's important to note that because of health concerns Joe Torre seems intent on avoiding using Rivera for more than an inning. That means the Yankees opponents will see a lot of Kyle Farnsworth. That's not good for the Yankees. One of the scouts here this weekend said he'd tell his pitchers not to throw a single fastball to anybody in the Yankees lineup.

Jim Sheppard from Mississauga, Ont., writes: Do my poor Detroit Tigers have any chance, especially after their stumbling finish to the season? I've waited 19 years for them to get back.

Jeff Blair writes: No. I didn't like what I saw out of their young pitchers in the last month. This is uncharted territory for them in terms of innings pitched.

Larry Millson writes: Having watched in person, the Tigers drop their final five games of the season. I don't hold out much hope because their pitching has been so poor. I'd hate to have to depend on Kenny Rogers in Game 3, or any game that counts and especially against the Yankees. Any team has a chance if the pitching comes up big, so hope that they get a couple of decent starts at Yankee Stadium and they regain their confidence.

Krishan Kochhar from Mississauga, Ont., writes: The Mets have been slacking since locking up a playoff spot, do you think this is going to hurt them against a surging Dodgers team? Thanks

Larry Millson writes: I still like the Mets even without Pedro Martinez. I'm suspicious of the Dodgers, coming from the National League West. Of course the whole National League is suspect - except perhaps the Mets.

Jeff Blair writes: According to Stats, Inc., since 1995, 20 teams have clinched their division by Sept. 20. Just two of those, the 1995 Braves and 1998 Yankees, went on to win the World Series. The Mets clinched their title on Sept. 18. I think this could be the best series of the first round and I think the Dodgers will win IF Nomar Garciaparra's strained oblique muscle doesn't keep him out of the lineup - it did this weekend - and IF Brad Penny's rumoured health issues can be controlled. The Dodgers are streaky. The Mets need a big opening game from their two energy guys, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. But right now, I'd call the Dodgers in five. Remember, wild-card teams have done pretty well in recent years ...

Mike S. from Pickering, Ont., writes: First, LA over NY, San Diego over St. Louis, then SD over LA; Yankees sweep Tigers away, Twins down Athletics, Twins over Yankees in 6; Minnesota and San Diego in the final. Twins win it all. Second, what's Ricciardi's focus this winter? Pitching and more pitching? Who's he going to deal? Who can he get for Wells? Third, who cares about hockey. It's playoff time!

Jeff Blair writes: Ricciardi isn't going to deal Wells in my opinion, so it's a moot point. My guess is Ricciardi will try to add one of the mid-level, free-agent pitchers - think Gil Meche, Tony Armas, Jr. - or maybe try to swing a deal for a No. 3 guy. He needs a shortstop (again!) and while I think they'll re-sign Gregg Zaun I'm sure they're going to add another catcher. J.P. will keep his eyes open for another bat, but I don't think he'll over-spend for one. As far as trading players goes? He'd move one of his pitching prospects, but I don't see anybody else being dispatched.

Larry Millson writes: I like your postseason picks. They only play the regular-season NHL for pools. Ricciardi had better be after pitching and more pitching. I hope he gets nothing for Wells because Wells in centre field is important for the team's progress. He is young, only two years older than Rios, and is just reaching his peak. Ricciardi might have to give up prospects to get what he needs. I can see Russ Adams going elsewhere if the Blue Jays acquire a decent middle infielder.

Dasdas Asdasd from Orillia, Ont., writes: With the Jays having been out of the race since the all-star break, does the fact that they finished 2nd really mean anything at all? Boston had also given up so I think the Jays patting themselves on the back for their second place finish is ridiculous. When will they bring in some type of salary cap so we don't have to see the Yankees again in the post season? I we are all sick and tired of them in the playoffs.

Larry Millson writes: Finishing second is important for a team that is trying to reach the top, not so good if you were in first all season and going the other way. If you don't try to win as many games as you can at the professional level, then why play the games? I don't think you pat yourself on the back for finishing second but when it is your highest finish since 1993 then it's an achievement. The Yankee reality still exists and the Red Sox have the resources to bounce back. But for all their money the Yankees have not won the World Series since 2000 and often in the postseason they have looked old and tired. I don't like salary caps.

Jeff Blair writes: Dasdas, why do you need a salary cap? In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees don't win the World Series every year. Sometimes, they don't even make the World Series. There's already parity in baseball. As for the second-place finish? It doesn't mean much but for the Blue Jays players such as Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay who have been there and who have either signed or will sign an extension, I think it was taken as a sign of a halting step forward. But you're right ... I wouldn't go using it as a marketing device to sell tickets in '07!!

You V.W. Eckz from Toronto writes: I've never understood why MLB doesn't go to a deeper playoff format. Cut the regular schedule by 7 to 10 games, most of which don't get sold out anyway. Playoffs, however, do tend to sell out and more can be be charged for ticket prices, so more fan money, TV revenues, and excitement. At the very least, start the playoffs between the top two teams in each division. Depending on the math, MLB may even be able to start with some wildcard playoff games. Baseball is so rooted in tradition it often gets stuck in neutral.

Jeff Blair writes: Good points, all of them - although I like the playoff structure the way it is because unlike sports like hockey and basketball - where it seems you make the playoffs unless your franchise:

A. folds
B. is run by Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment

the regular season still carries some meaning. Apparently the topic of shortening the season has come up in some of the preliminary talks on the new collective agreement but there is no way that the playoffs will be expanded as long as Bud Selig is commissioner.

Larry Millson writes: Some would say it already has strayed too far from tradition. There are people in baseball who advocate more playoffs though. I'd like to see a shorter season even if no playoffs teams were added. That might not be bad to add teams, but I would hate to see it go like hockey or basketball with so many teams in the playoffs that it takes away the achievement of making postseason. Baseball is a different game in postseason because some of the ingredients that make a team successful over the long haul aren't so effective in a short series where a couple of dominant pitchers can make a huge difference.

Steve in Toronto writes: It's great to see talented Canadians ready to break out on the big stage. Which Canuck do you think will have the biggest impact? Is Harden been back long enough to make a difference?

Jeff Blair writes: Ray Fosse, the Athletics broadcaster, thinks Harden can do for the Athletics what Francisco Rodriguez did for the Angels when they won the World Series. He's right. It's tough to overlook Justin Morneau, obviously, but to me the Canadian on the spot in the post-season is the Dodgers rookie catcher, Russell Martin. He's had a huge workload, isn't used to playing this late in the season - and the Mets, particularly Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran - can run a team out of the park.

Larry Millson writes: Harden had a tough start in Oakland's final game of the season. His velocity wasn't where it should be and his location was off. Perhaps he needed the work ger rid of the rust but based on that start it is hard to predict how effective he could be. This has been a breakout season for Justin Morneau for the Twins. What has impressed me is how he has taken pitches the other way especially with two strikes against some tough lefties who previously gave him trouble. If he keeps that approach and doesn't get caught up in the posseason excitement and try to jerk the ball over the fence he could be continue to be productive.

David Leeder, Sports Editor, globeandmail.com: Thanks Jeff and Larry for participating in today's discussion, and we look forward to reading your coverage of the playoffs. Readers should watch for the launch of a special post-season baseball blog later today. One final question for you: Major League Baseball's on-going problems with doping have reemerged over the past 24 hours with the report that former pitcher Jason Grimsley has accused five players, including stars Roger Clemens and Miguel Tejada, of utilizing performance-enhancing drugs. Is this a scandal that will hover over the game during the playoffs?

Larry Millson: I'm sure it will continue to pop up, but judging by attendance this season with the problem as constant background music, it could be the general sports fans isn't as concerned about it as we'd like to think. If HGH cannot be detected it is a big problem for all sports. Are those guys in the NFL all natural? It is important, a big problem that isn't going to go away with a few public relations gestures.

Jeff Blair writes: It will as far as the media is concerned. Fans? Meh, I don't think they give a damn, for the most part until more of this generation's players start dying or developing serious health problems from the use of performance enhancers. From the media's point of view, the scandal is going to take at least as much time as the drug scandals of the 70s-80s took to play out and likely more because we're now in a 24-hour newscycle. But know what? People who haven't cared about it before won't care about it now. Until I hear baseball fans hankering for more pitchers throwing fastballs in the mid-80s range and home run champions swatting their 25th homer on the final day of the season, my mind won't be changed. But I also know this: pitchers used as much of this stuff as hitters. It was used by the game's upper, lower and middle classes and the newer technologies that allow people to cheat the testing programs that are in place will be made more readily available. So in the the meantime, I'm not going to hold up any player as being a 'clean' home run hitter or pitcher - just to be on the safe side.

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