News

Fifty-eight ridings in the last election were decided with a margin of victory of 5 per cent or less. With polls showing this election could also be tight, those ridings could again decide who forms the next government. Below, the full list. Here are five bellwether ridings to watch, in which the major parties are hoping to persuade voters to switch allegiances:

Cambridge . If the Liberal government is looking to move beyond its minority status, it should look to Cambridge. The residents of this Southwestern Ontario riding have swung between Liberals and Conservatives for a number of years. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, they even backed a New Democratic Party candidate.

The last election was so close that the ballots were recounted. Conservative Gary Goodyear, a chiropractor, defeated Liberal incumbent Janko Peric, a former welder, by a mere 224 votes. The two men will face off again in this election.

With 120,000 residents, the Cambridge riding is one of the most populous in Canada. A large blue-collar community throws its support behind the NDP.

Unlike the surrounding area, which is quite homogeneous, Cambridge has a large ethnic community -- particularly people of Portuguese decent -- who can switch between supporting the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Caroline Alphonso

New Westminster-Coquitlam . With polls showing them riding high in British Columbia, federal New Democrats hope to dramatically increase the five seats they won in the province last time out. No riding entices them more than the suburban seat of New Westminster-Coquitlam.

The riding has been held for the past three elections by Paul Forseth. Each time, the low-key Mr. Forseth has run under a different party banner (Reform, Canadian Alliance, Conservative), and each time, he has squeaked out a narrow victory in an area that was once an NDP stronghold.

In 2004, his margin of victory over the New Democrats' Steve McClurg was a mere 114 votes, one of the closest results in the country. Mr. Forseth will be challenged -- for the third time -- by former MP Dawn Black, who edged out Mr. McClurg for the NDP nomination last summer. Former provincial cabinet minister Joyce Murray is running for the Liberals, who have always finished a strong second or third in the riding. Rod Mickleburgh

West Nova. The western Nova Scotia riding of West Nova -- which spans the fertile farmlands of the Annapolis Valley to the southern port town of Yarmouth, with kilometres of sandy beaches facing the Bay of Fundy -- is a traditional swing riding, alternating between Tory blue and Grit red with remarkable consistency.

West Nova has been called a microcosm of rural Canada.The incumbent is Liberal Robert Thibault, who was first elected in 2000. In 2004, many pundits predicted Mr. Thibault would lose his seat, but he edged out Tory challenger Jon Carey by more than 4,000 votes.

This time, Mr. Thibault is facing a challenge from veteran provincial Tory politician Greg Kerr, a former minister of tourism, environment and finance.

Mr. Kerr said he believes people are weary of the governing party. Jane Armstrong

Papineau . The Montreal riding of Papineau, held by Foreign Affairs Minister Pierre Pettigrew, is among a half-dozen Liberal ridings being targeted by the Bloc Québécois.

Mr. Pettigrew was elected in 2004 with a slim majority of 468 votes in one of the country's most densely populated ridings. Almost half the voters are non-francophones with multi-ethnic backgrounds, and are considered traditional Liberal supporters.

Mr. Pettigrew has recruited Jean-Sebastien Marineau -- who worked for former Parti Québécois premier Lucien Bouchard in 1998 and was the main Liberal organizer for the 27 western Quebec ridings in the last election -- as his campaign organizer.

The Bloc is running a Haitian-born candidate, Vivian Barbot, former president of the Quebec Women's Federation. The party is counting on voter anger over the sponsorship scandal and Mr. Pettigrew's past remarks about Quebec nationalists to get francophones to vote massively against the Liberals. Rhéal Séguin

Trinity-Spadina . While she continues to be coy about her intentions, Olivia Chow of the NDP is almost certain to take her third run at toppling Liberal Tony Ianno, who has held this downtown Toronto riding, one of the most diverse in Canada, since 1993.

Less certain is the outcome, given that Ms. Chow finished less than 2 per cent behind Mr. Ianno in 2004, despite predictions she would win on the strength of her profile as a popular city councillor and wife of NDP Leader Jack Layton.

Mr. Layton's rising profile in Ottawa since the last election could provide an extra lift this time, but Ms. Chow faces a continuing challenge along the waterfront, where new condominium towers are changing the riding's demographics.

Long a battleground between the Liberals and NDP, the riding -- nearly half of whose residents are immigrants -- hasn't elected a Conservative since 1958. Fear of a win by Stephen Harper's Conservatives in 2004 likely sent some NDP votes to Mr. Ianno, and could resurface as a factor this time around.

Anthony Reinhart

Electoral ridings to watch

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Burnaby-Douglas


Burnaby-New Westminster


Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca


Newton-North Delta


New Westminster-Coquitlam


North Vancouver


Skeena-Bulkley Valley


Southern Interior


Vancouver Island North


Vancouver Kingsway


West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast


Victoria

ALBERTA

Edmonton-Beaumont


Edmonton-Centre

MANITOBA

Charleswood-St. James


Kildonan-St. Paul

SASKATCHEWAN

Palliser


Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre


Regina-Qu'Appelle


Saskatoon-Humbolt

ONTARIO

Barrie


Brant


Cambridge


Chatham-Kent-Essex


Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge


Dufferin-Caledon


Essex


Haldimand-Norfolk


Hamilton Mountain


Kenora


Middlesex-Kent-Lambton


Niagara Falls


Niagara West-Glanbrook


Nemarket-Aurora


Northumberland-Quinte West


Oshawa


Ottawa-Orléans


Ottawa West-Nepean


Sault Ste. Marie


Simcoe-Grey


Timmins-James Bay


Toronto-Danforth


Wellington-Halton Hills


Trinity-Spadina

QUEBEC

Ahuntsic


Brome-Missisquoi


Brossard-La Prairie


Chicoutimi-Le Fjord


Jeanne-Le Ber


Nunavik-Eeyou


Papineau

NEWFOUNDLAND

St. John's North


St. John's South

NOVA SCOTIA

Halifax

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

Western Artic