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A new poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV finds that the Liberal Party has 32-per-cent support among decided voters, a one-point lead over the Conservative Party.

The NDP stands at 17 per cent, while the Bloc Québécois continues to dominate in Quebec with 48-per-cent support.

The results, according to Ipsos-Reid, point to the Conservatives as having the best chance of winning the most seats of any party, though far short of a majority, as they capitalize on support in British Columbia, Alberta and parts of Ontario outside Toronto.

The Liberals and the NDP, meanwhile, appear unlikely to win enough seats to be capable of building a majority coalition between them.

The poll of 2,000 adults -- twice the usual sample size -- was conducted from Monday through Wednesday. It finds a sharp reduction in undecided voters, down to 7 per cent of the electorate from twice that level just days ago.

"Things do seem to be settling in," said Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker. He said that the parties' focus is now in the process of changing from the "wholesale" politics of national campaigns and advertising to the "retail" effort to get out the vote in individual ridings.

"It may come down to who can do that better."

The two major parties have been within a few percentage points of each other for almost all of the past four weeks, after the Conservatives whittled down the Liberals' solid lead in the first days of the campaign.

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The race is tight, too, in the crucial province of Ontario, where the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives, 38 per cent to 34. The NDP has the support of one in five Ontario voters.

In Quebec, Liberal support stands at 29 per cent, 19 points behind the Bloc. The Conservatives and the NDP both are in single digits.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, with the NDP and Conservatives neck and neck, but well behind. The Conservatives are well ahead in British Columbia with the Liberals and the NDP struggling for second place. The Conservatives dominate Alberta and have a small lead over the Liberals on the Prairies.

A seat-projection model produced by Ipsos-Reid nationwide suggests that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper could end up with a wider edge in the next Parliament than the polling data might suggest.

The model -- based on the results of this latest poll and, to a lesser extent, three previous ones by Ipsos-Reid -- finds that the Conservatives have a potential 115 to 119 seats, compared with 99 to 103 for the Liberals. The NDP has the potential for about 25, while the Bloc may be destined for its best showing ever, dominating Quebec's 75 seats.

The Liberal Party's greatest strengths are in Toronto and western Montreal. The Conservatives are strong in rural and suburban Ontario, and across Western Canada.

Ontario, which has more than one-third of all seats, is projected to split almost evenly between the two major parties, with the Liberals winning just over 50 seats and the Conservatives just under 50.

The NDP is projected to pick up the remainder of the province's 106 seats.

Liberal Leader Paul Martin said on Wednesday that he would not seek to form the next government if the Liberals fail to win the most seats.

This may prove to be the outcome, although the seat model suggests it also would be difficult for Mr. Harper to form a stable government. A working majority requires controlling 155 seats in the next Parliament, which will have 308 MPs.

"The key question may be how motivated the Bloc is to prop up anyone," Mr. Bricker said.

No recent federal election has been as close in terms of the popular vote as this latest poll suggests Monday's balloting may be.

The Liberals had a 3.5-percentage-point edge over the Progressive Conservatives in 1972, when Liberal leader Pierre Trudeau was left with only a two-seat lead in the Commons. In 1979, Tory leader Joe Clark won 22 seats more than Mr. Trudeau, but lost the popular vote by more than four percentage points.

The Ipsos-Reid poll finds that Canadians realize how close this race is. Half of those queried (49 per cent) believe that the Liberals will win the election and form the next government, but that is a sharp drop from the 72 per cent who thought this would be the result days before the writ was dropped on May 23. Conversely, 35 per cent of those polled believe the Conservatives will triumph, as compared with 18 per cent in mid-May.

Four in five Liberal voters are confident of their party's prospects; seven in 10 Conservative voters feel the same way about their party.

The Green Party is at 6 per cent nationally.

The poll has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points upward or downward, 19 times out of 20.

National seat projection

A poll of 2,000 people were conducted in 33 regions across Canada. The responses suggest a Liberal win in the popular vote but a Conservative win in the seats taken.

NATIONAL SUMMARY (total seats and popular vote)

Conservatives

117 seats

31%

Liberals

101 seats

32%

Bloc Quebecois

66 seats

12%

NDP

24 seats

17%

B.C. North

Conservatives: 26

Liberals: 9

NDP: 4

Alberta

Conservatives: 26

Liberals: 2

Sask./Man.

Conservatives: 14

Liberals: 6

NDP: 8

Toronto area

Conservatives: 7

Liberals: 27

NDP: 4

Rest of Ont.

Conservatives: 40

Liberals: 25

NDP: 3

Montreal

Liberals: 8

Bloc Québécois: 13

Rest of Queb.

Liberals: 1

Bloc Québécois: 53

Atlantic

Conservatives: 4

Liberals: 23

NDP: 5

Party popularity

There were 1,854 decided respondents with 1 2.2-percentage-point margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

Question: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you be most likely to support?

Liberals: 32%

Conservatives: 31%

NDP: 17%

Bloc: 12%

Green: 6%

Provincial breakdown

British Columbia

Conservatives: 44%

Liberals: 24%

NDP: 22%

Green Party: 8%

Alberta

Conservatives: 59%

Liberals: 20%

NDP: 11%

Green Party: 6%

Sask./Man.

Conservatives: 36%

Liberals: 32%

NDP: 25%

Green Party: 5%

Ontario

Conservatives: 34%

Liberals: 38%

NDP: 20%

Green Party: 6%

Quebec

Conservatives: 9%

Liberals: 29%

NDP: 5%

Bloc Quebecois: 48%

Green Party: 5%

Atlantic

Conservatives: 23%

Liberals: 44%

NDP: 26%

Green Party: 7%

SOURCE: IPSOS-REID

Poll methodology

The seat-projection model produced by Ipsos-Reid is based on a weighed extrapolation of the results of the past four polls by the company. The poll released today is given the greatest weight, and lesser weights are given to previous polls dating to June 15. A series of polls is used to provide a large enough sample size -- a total of 5,802 people, in this instance -- to be reliable, and the results are tabulated across 33 regions of the country.

Those regional breakdowns provide an estimate of how the race might go in all of Canada's 308 ridings.