Even though Spider-Man, Iron Man, Superman, Batman, Aquaman and all manner of sundry superhumans have crowded theatres this summer, Hollywood is still in need of a hero. With seemingly sure things (The BFG) faltering and would-be franchises (The Legend of Tarzan) left to die on the vine, this summer's box office is headed for a 22-per-cent decline from last year's haul. (The first half of 2015's season brought in a massive $1.59-billion U.S.; this year's has barely scrapped together $1.24-billion.)
As usual, the film industry and those who depend on its shiny offerings are looking for someone to blame. Maybe it's this glut of sequels that is so bedevilling audiences! (Well, okay, but The Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Captain America: Civil War, Finding Dory and The Purge: Election Year are all handily out-grossing their progenitors.) Maybe moviegoers want more tried-and-true stars! (Fine, but you don't get much bigger than The Rock, whose Central Intelligence is on track to hit $100-million by the end of this week.) Or, um, maybe we're just not making very good movies! (Sure, no argument here.)
But while it's easy to already write this summer off as a loss – the season of the 'meh,' perhaps? – all is not lost. In fact, the latter half of the season just might deliver both the fiscally friendly hits the studios so desperately need, and – thank God – the critically sound films that will wash away memories of such by-committee offerings as Independence Day: Resurgence.
First, though, we have to get through July. Thanks to a history of splashy July 4 openings, the month has earned an air of box-office braggadocio (which can be traced back to Will Smith, whose original, not-horrible Independence Day and Men In Black films owned the holiday weekend for years). But July is a much more fickle beast than any easy analyst narrative suggests.
Just last year, both the latest Terminator film and the counter-programmable Magic Mike XXL opened to a muted round of "sure, fine." A year before that, the new Transformers topped the charts – but only because it was released the week before and there was nothing better on offer. And in 2013, The Lone Ranger took a nosedive off a cliff, leading to the worst Independence Day weekend in more than a decade.
So don't cry "fire!" in a crowded multiplex yet. In addition to the robust earnings of Finding Dory – that rare blockbuster which is both a hit with audiences and the cultural cognoscenti – three of this season's most anticipated films are still on the July horizon: Ghostbusters, Star Trek Beyond and Jason Bourne. Although each carries with it the burdens of franchise exhaustion (and, for Ghostbusters, a wave of virulent misogyny), the films also boast benefits few other summer movies can claim: proven track records of success.
For Ghostbusters, there's writer-director Paul Feig, whose last three projects all crossed the $100-million mark (even better: each starred new Ghostbuster Melissa McCarthy). His latest is tracking at opening in the $40- to $50-million range, though word-of-mouth should hopefully propel it further. With Star Trek, there's director Justin Lin, responsible for the turnaround of the Fast & Furious franchise. And for the revamped Bourne, there's writer-director Paul Greengrass, returning to the series in fighting form after the Universal brand endured a misstep with Jeremy Renner and director Tony Gilroy.
And then there's August. Traditionally used as a dumping ground for movies that just don't quite work – factory seconds, basically – the month has been slowly shaking off its bad reputation, starting with 2014's Guardians of the Galaxy (which ended up being that year's third-highest grossing movie).
This August sees the release of a number of high-profile affairs, including Disney's remake of Pete's Dragon (which is building excellent buzz thanks to its tear-jerking trailer), the so-bizarre-it-just-might-work Sausage Party (starring half of Hollywood), War Dogs (a possible comeback vehicle for Hangover mastermind Todd Phillips) and Suicide Squad (Warner's bid to revive its superhero slate, and starring the one-time man of summer himself, Will Smith). In a cute reversal, August just might be the new July.
To all this, add a compelling slate of adult-oriented fare – Viggo Mortensen's Captain Fantastic, the female-led Wall Street drama Equity, the Obama romcom Southside with You and two of the most compelling Canadian dramas in years, Closet Monster and How Heavy This Hammer – and the summer just might not be lost after all.
Would-be heroes, you can look elsewhere for now – such as, say, 2017.
Barry Hertz