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With dwindling sponsors, a shrinking car count, and departing engine suppliers, there's huge trouble on the horizon for the Indy Racing League that even the pixie smiles of rookie driver Danica Patrick won't be able to fix.

Although Patrick's sex appeal boosted the series popularity this season, it wasn't enough to keep Toyota from leaving the fold and heading to NASCAR. With Chevrolet already having announced its departure last year, Toyota's decision leaves only Honda as an IRL engine manufacturer and puts the series' future in considerable doubt.

The time has come for Indianapolis Motor Speedway owner and IRL founder Tony George to start some serious negotiations to reunify his series with Champ Car, because if history is any indication, the IRL will have a difficult time surviving in the post-Toyota era.

George only has to look at the results of the manufacturers jumping from the old Championship Auto Racing Teams (CART) to the IRL after the 2002 season. When Toyota and Honda left Ford as CART's sole engine supplier, it precipitated the series' painful slide into bankruptcy.

Understandably, a number of well-established CART owners with strong links to the Japanese car makers followed their flush engine suppliers to the IRL, including Michael Andretti, Chip Ganassi, Roger Penske and Bobby Rahal.

At the same time, some sponsors also moved to the IRL, while others reconsidered their involvement in the weakened CART, which created a number of serious cash shortfalls in team budgets. This, in turn, left the series on the hook to ensure there were enough cars on the starting grid to keep promoters and fans happy.

Since CART was a public company at the time, then chief executive officer Chris Pook was forced to spend wildly to support teams, drivers, and races in the hope that a buyer could be found before the cash reserves ran out. He needed to ensure shareholder value and supporting the teams financially was the chosen solution.

But by the end of the season, the money was gone, the debts piled up, no buyer was found, and the series filed for bankruptcy protection. CART team owners Gerry Forsythe, Paul Gentilozzi and Kevin Kalkhoven bought the assets and created the Champ Car World Series.

While it struggled to get enough cars onto the starting grid in 2004, Champ Car successfully made it through its important first season under new management. By the end of the first year, the owners also secured the series' engine and electronics supplies by purchasing Cosworth and Pi Engineering. This year, the Champ Car owners also secured the rights to its flagship Long Beach race.

While Champ Car may not be completely out of the woods and the owners admit there remains lots of work to do, it is solidly on track and exceeding expectations

Unfortunately for the IRL, it now faces an economic reality similar to the one that killed CART: Without the manufacturer money pouring in from Honda and Toyota, teams will have to make up the difference elsewhere. That means going to their sponsors for more cash, reducing the number of cars they field, or asking for a handout from George.

So far, the numbers don't look good. Cheever Racing and Panther Racing lost their sponsors at the end of the season and quickly let go most of their staff. Cheever has already announced plans to field a Grand-American Sports Car team in 2006. While Panther's plans remain unclear, most feel it will struggle to return to the IRL grid next season. Hemelgarn Racing's ability to bring back its one-car effort also remains less than 100 per cent certain.

The two cars belonging to Fernandez Racing also remain question marks although Japanese driver Kosuke Matsuura may be a good candidate to return provided his backer Aguri Suzuki isn't putting all his cash toward his Formula One plans. Fernandez's other sponsor, auto parts maker Delphi, filed for bankruptcy protection in early October.

Chip Ganassi Racing and Rahal Letterman Racing will each cut one of their three cars in 2006. Andretti Green insists that it will continue with four cars in 2006 but that will be difficult without its huge Honda backing. It is thought that Honda funded about three-quarters of the team's $40-million budget.

Team Penske should also be back with its two cars and Vision Racing, owned by George and piloted by his stepson driver Ed Carpenter, will definitely field one car. The final grid spot belongs to Dreyer & Reinbold Racing.

With only a dozen confirmed entries for 2006, many are also questioning whether George's flagship Indianapolis 500 will be able to attract the traditional 33 cars to the racetrack in May, let alone have that number start the Memorial Day race.

After seeing CART implode when it was thrust into exactly the same situation three years ago, George must realize that his series is on a crash course.

While previous negotiations with the Champ Car owners failed to progress because George steadfastly insisted on maintaining complete control after a merger, that position is no longer viable.

With the Indianapolis 500 set to become less than the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing" and the IRL's position weakening every day, George needs to swallow his pride and make some serious concessions to the Champ Car owners before it too late.

globeauto@globeandmail.ca