SAGUENAY, QUE. -- The moment Jean Chrétien announced he would retire in 18 months, the on-again-off-again race to replace him was on again, with Paul Martin clearly in the lead.

Industry Minister Allan Rock and Heritage Minister Sheila Copps were first out of the gate, making diplomatic, but high-profile, statements about the Prime Minister's record and the importance of helping him fulfill his policy agenda over the next year and a half.

One possible contender, former cabinet minister Brian Tobin, immediately declared he would not run for the party leadership.

"At this stage in the game, I'm sitting back," he said in an interview. "At this stage in the game, I'm Brian Tobin, private citizen."

Most of the potential candidates were holding conference calls with their advisers, trying to assess what the Chrétien announcement means for their futures, despite orders from the Prime Minister in June to put down their arms.

"In times of war, nations have always been prepared to pick up their arms quickly. I don't think there's any doubt that people are on the blowers now," Liberal Party president Stephen LeDrew said.

"It's a real leadership [race] now; it's not just one or the other; it's not Martin-Chrétien," Mr. LeDrew said. "There's a whole plethora of candidates that will be coming out. That's good for the party."

The candidates will probably keep their campaigns low-key for a while -- except for Mr. Martin, who has been campaigning openly for two months -- until party executives can set out a formal leadership process with specific dates and rules, Ottawa insiders said.

The review of Mr. Chrétien's leadership, scheduled for next February, will most likely be cancelled, Mr. LeDrew said, adding that he will discuss the matter with the management board of the party executive today.

Instead of the review, the executive will have to decide soon when to hold a full leadership convention, he said. The convention will be held before February, 2004, but the executive will have to make a political decision about how early it should take place, Mr. LeDrew said.

Some Martin opponents were suspicious that the party executive, dominated by Martin supporters, would try to force an early convention and push Mr. Chrétien out of office before February, 2004.

Martin supporters gave no sign they would do that. A key Chrétien strategist, Peter Donolo, said he doubted the Martin camp would pursue such a strategy, since it would only encourage more infighting and would damage Mr. Martin.

"Liberals have been heartsick about the infighting and division," Mr. Donolo said.

The leadership race will likely feature the familiar faces of Mr. Rock, Ms. Copps and Deputy Prime Minister John Manley. They all have campaign structures in place, have begun fundraising, and were all actively campaigning until Mr. Chrétien told them desist in June, for the sake of party unity.

Former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna's name is also being floated, but most insiders believe that he, like Mr. Tobin, has no interest in running against a well-positioned Mr. Martin.

A western candidate, such as Health Minister Anne McLellan or Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal, may well come to the fore before the race is over. Human Resources Minister Jane Stewart is another possibility.

Justice Minister Martin Cauchon is being mentioned as a possible candidate, although some insiders say he'll support Mr. Martin in this leadership race because he doesn't have much hope of placing well.

If the leadership race were held today, Mr. Martin would certainly win, said pollster Frank Graves, president of Ekos Research Associates.

But the long 18-month time frame left open by Mr. Chrétien does not work in Mr. Martin's favour.

"He has a virtual stranglehold on the succession at this point in time," Mr. Graves said. "But it's his to lose."

Mr. Martin's policies and vision will come under intense scrutiny that he has not faced before, Mr. Graves said. Over the next 18 months, any number of factors -- a downturn in the economy, sovereignty problems in Quebec, or an effective anyone-but-Martin campaign -- could shake the public's confidence in the former finance minister.

Ekos polling shows Mr. Rock is the best positioned among potential candidates to pose a serious threat to Mr. Martin, Mr. Graves said.

Sheila Copps

Age: 49

Riding: Hamilton East

First Elected to House of Commons: 1984

Portfolio: Minister of Canadian Heritage

Martin Cauchon

Age: 39

Riding: Outremont

First Elected to House of Commons: 1993

Portfolio: Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada

John Manley

Age: 52

Riding: Ottawa South

First Elected to House of Commons: 1988

Portfolio: Deputy Minister, Minister of Finance; minister responsible for Canada-U.S. border security

Paul Martin

Age: 63

Riding: LaSalle-Emard

First Elected to House of Commons: 1988

Portfolio: Minister of Finance until June 2, 2002

Allan Rock

Age: 54

Riding: Etobicoke Centre

First Elected to House of Commons: 1993

Portfolio: Minister of Industry; minister responsible for the $2 billion infrastructure Fund

Herb Dhaliwal

Age: 49

Riding: Vancouver South-Burnaby

First Elected to House of Commons: 1993

Portfolio: Minister of Natural Resources