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For the last six years, Ontario budgets have been relatively predictable.

There was a major infrastructure investment based on unexpected corporate tax revenue, the subway extension to York being the most obvious example.

There was more money to lower class sizes, decrease waiting times in health and protect our communities.

For the economy, there were investments in research, innovation, and higher education, as well as moves for business like eliminating the capital tax.

The budget was balanced, as it was the last three years, or headed toward balance, as it was the three before that.

And there was a signature social or economic policy move: the child poverty initiative, the Reaching Higher plan for post-secondary, the aforementioned subway or elimination of the capital tax all leap to mind.

The McGuinty Liberals were very good at incrementalism, building relentlessly in small steps toward specific results.

But incrementalism is a dangerous choice these days. People want action on the economy. Plus or minus 2 per cent probably won't cut it.

Here are some major levers the government could pull in tomorrow's budget:

Single Sales Tax

This is the riskiest move McGuinty could make, and the one with the best upside for Ontario in the long-run.

A Single Sales Tax would bring together the GST and PST into a single tax collected by the federal government.

Right now, the government actually taxes new equipment when companies try to upgrade, a reason why Ontario plants in forestry or auto assembly aren't always as competitive as our neighbours. A Single Sales Tax removes those taxes on struggling businesses, especially in manufacturing, a critical move during a recession to save jobs.

Those savings in turn get handed to consumers as a lower price for goods from cars to biotech separation membranes. And the lower price makes our cars and membranes cheaper around the world, boosting exports, creating jobs, raising wages and generally making Ontario richer.

Got that? A Single Sales Tax eliminates double, triple and quadruple taxation on companies that add value to goods, making our exports far more competitive, which in turn creates jobs and lowers the cost of things Canadians buy. Very powerful stuff.

But a Single Sales Tax also eliminates a bunch of Provincial Sales Tax loopholes on things like new homes, haircuts and hamburgers. Collapsing those loopholes is needed to pay for the lower costs on goods generally. A Single Sales Tax hits more things less times.

The problem is that the benefits of Single Sales Tax, while enormous, are gradual and diffused across the economy. It will take years for the huge benefits in exports, lower prices and jobs to work their way through the system. People want jobs now, not jobs in three or four years.

Meanwhile, the cost is sharp to a handful of interest groups who can rile up consumers over the "new tax" on haircuts or hamburgers.

While Single Sales Tax is revenue neutral or even a net revenue loss to the Ontario government, it will be inaccurately portrayed by the opposition and interest groups as a tax grab.

It looked like Premier McGuinty wanted to go to a SST until the Toronto Star leaked a raucous caucus meeting where nervous Nelly MPPs complained about the potential political fallout in their ridings.

If Premier McGuinty lost his nerve, that is understandable.

The PC's in Saskatchewan were defeated on the issue in 1991. So were the Liberals in Nova Scotia in 1999. There are powerful interests like developers, fast food chains and real estate agents opposed to a Single Sales Tax. No one wants their tombstone to read "he did the right thing" when they could have lived instead.

But if the government announces a Single Sales Tax tomorrow, it will be an act of pure political bravery by Premier McGuinty. He risks the losing the next election in exchange for a massive jobs and economy boost the province would not see until after 2011, which his successor can simply take the credit for.

Poverty

While not as high-risk as Single Sales Tax, poverty is a double edged sword for the Liberals.

In a recession, support for the most vulnerable increases. Ontarians do want help for those without means.

But that altruism is guarded by a burning desire to not see their taxes wasted or given out in vain.

Social service policy in the budget will need to be focused like a laser on helping the most vulnerable find work again, not building a comfortable lifestyle for those on welfare.

And will the Liberals address the most pressing question in social policy: how can one-parent households in an expensive jurisdiction like Toronto make ends meet?

That means increasing the Ontario Child Benefit and doing it dramatically and immediately.

The OCB is not just for those on welfare, but helps the working poor as well. This incents people to get work, even if it is just to a part-time job, because they won't immediately lose the assistance they need to make ends meet and pay for things like their kids' medication.

Also, look to see if there are changes to the province's rent bank program to help those at risk of losing their homes.

Infrastructure

The government rolled out a breath-taking number for infrastructure Monday: $27.5-billion over just two years.

While there are categories, there is not yet a sense of coherence about where this money is going.

Will tomorrow's budget include a single plan for capital spending that ties the elements together?

Or will there be a long rollout over the weeks to come, only then followed by a summation document that lays out the overall vision?

Health

Paying for drugs, hospitals and doctors is the black hole of budget making.

Every year, billions more go in, and it only seems to make the system hungrier. Aging boomers, new treatments and higher expectations make those costs rise well above inflation.

Will there be a plan for cost containment in health?

Even more risky are delistings, like removing optometry in 2004. Focusing the health system to bear the burden of the baby boom will probably mean this type of ruthlessness. But is this the year?

Or will the budget instead focus on delivering the election pledge to reduce wait times in ERs and attack the doctor shortage?

Efficiency

During tough times, the public will want to see that government is running a tight ship.

And "eliminating waste" is the constant answer opposition parties give when asked how they would change things.

The problem is that one persons waste is another person's essential program.

McGuinty's government faces tough choices on making government more efficient, but you should expect to see some taps turned off and constraint imposed on non-priority program areas.

Fiscal

I strongly believe now is the time to increase the debt to finance infrastructure. Money is cheap, and the Ontario Financing Authority are wizards at building a huge low-cost, long-term debt portfolio from that ultra-low interest rate money.

I'd rather do that now that in two years when interest rates are 10 per cent.

I have written on this ad nauseum.

But there also needs to be a plan to keep us out of structural deficit and balance the books over time.

Here are the key questions when examining that plan.

Are the revenue assuptions in the out years realistic? In what year do they expect the turnaround to begin? How much cushion is there in the projections?

With a solid plan to get back into the black, a few years in the red is not the end of the world.

But if the plan is wobbily, we can expect problems down the road.