News

1. Detainee story weighs on government. Canadians are changing their minds as to whether they believe the Harper government is now moving in the right direction, suggesting the controversy over the allegations of torture of Afghan detainees may be having a negative effect, according to a new poll. EKOS’s Frank Graves recorded a 10-point drop over just one week when he asked Canadians if they believed the government was moving in the right direction - to about 38 per cent from 48 per cent.

“That is a pretty precipitous decline for a one-week period,” Mr. Graves said this morning. “And this is a very stable indicator. … That suggests to me that there may well be something going on and obviously the key thing that is out there right now is the whole brouhaha over torture and detainees.” He surveyed 5,759 Canadians between Nov. 11 and Nov. 24. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Mr. Graves says that the “direction” question is usually one that doesn’t move. Even in the first week of the poll, beginning Nov. 11, it was at its usual level of about 50 per cent. But that changed the next week as did the national narrative when senior Canadian diplomat Richard Colvin appeared before a Commons committee with his allegations that torture of Afghan detainees was routine. He also said that his bosses did not want to hear his allegations.

The pollster, who will be looking more closely at the detainee story in his poll next week, believes there is concern about issues of accountability and transparency and honesty. “There is a sense possibly that a cover-up is going on and there has been less-than-honest treatment on this issue with Canadians,” he said. “This may be what is troubling some people.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Graves’s poll shows that the Tories still maintain a 10-point lead over the Liberals when it comes to voting intentions - 36.9 per cent for Stephen Harper's Conservatives compared to 27.1 per cent for Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, with the NDP at 15.3 per cent, the Bloc at 9.4 per cent and the Green Party at 11.4 per cent.

2. Pundits pronounce on generals. Columnists are weighing in on Rick Hillier's testimony as another senior government official, former Afghan point man David Mulroney, prepares to face MPs today.

The Toronto Star’s Jim Travers writes that Mr. Hillier’s testimony doesn’t reveal anything new. Rather, he says Canadians “now need to know not just what the Prime Minister and Defence Minister knew and when they knew it. They also need to know exactly what Colvin wrote, why it carried so little weight then and apparently now strikes no fear in Hillier or his senior officers.”

The National Post and Calgary Herald’s Don Martin writes that Mr. Colvin’s testimony “is being pounded by military brass knuckles with top-level Afghanistan credentials.” He says if the Colvin e-mails (which are not public and which the government will not release) do not back up the diplomat’s assertions, his “credibility is dead.”

“The stakes remain high,” Mr. Martin says. “… If Colvin’s version of events lacks supportive documentation and continues to be shredded by bear-witness testimony, not only will his diplomatic reputation be destroyed, but opposition parties championing his case will be humiliated for being duped by one man’s vivid imagination.”

In the Halifax Chronicle-Herald, Stephen Maher writes along the same lines as Mr. Martin, arguing that this is a high-stakes game but without the emails Canadians have no idea who is credible and who is not. He also notes the “long-running conflict” between departments as a possible explanation for ignoring reports. “At question is how seriously the Defence Department took reports from Mr. Colvin, a Foreign Affairs staffer, in particular if it seemed to the military men that Foreign Affairs Department wanted to create a world of red tape.”

3. Michael Ignatieff’s unplugged tour. The Liberal Leader told his closed-door caucus meeting yesterday that he is “going to be unplugged” as he travels the country meeting with Canadians in advance of his March thinkers/policy conference. His trip - he will start at university and high school campuses in January - is a “listening tour” (where have you heard that one before? Mr. Ignatieff conducted a listening tour before this year’s budget and look where it got him).

“This is all about listening to Canadians,” he told his caucus. And he advised them to be patient and work hard - noting that every question in Question Period and that every bit of work done in a committee is part of the re-building process for the Liberals. He said he was “certain” that rewards would come.

The Liberal Leader is making a big speech on the environment in Quebec City today. He will be laying out a substantive Liberal approach to climate change in advance of next month’s environmental summit in Copenhagen, which Prime Minister Stephen Harper seems unlikely to attend.

(Photo: A Canadian soldier guards suspected Taliban prisoners in northern Kandahar province on May 10, 2006. John McHugh/AFP/Getty Images)