News

1. The surprise. Yesterday’s four by-elections gave us the Rivière-du-Loup shocker, while confirming the Liberal slumber.

By beating the Bloc Québécois in eastern Quebec, the Conservatives got the result they had hoped to achieve in the last general election. Had victory come a year ago in Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, Stephen Harper might have gotten an overall majority, as the riding was exactly the type of place where he was planning on making gains in Quebec. Instead, the Conservatives got bogged down in a debate on culture cuts and stagnated in the province, allowing the Bloc to hold on.

While a by-election is just that, the upset suggests Quebec will be the scene of interesting races in the next general election, and that even the safest Bloc seat can be in play. For Gilles Duceppe, the result provides the biggest challenge since he briefly quit as Bloc Leader to run for the leadership of the Parti Québécois in 2007.

Yesterday’s Conservative victory is made even more significant because the party was deemed to be toast in Quebec last winter, after Mr. Harper’s near-death experience in Parliament and the short-lived plans for a Liberal-NDP coalition supported by the Bloc. At the time, a number of long-time Tory supporters said that “something snapped” in Quebec and that the party was hopeless as long as Mr. Harper was at the helm. Things have changed.

The Conservatives benefited from running a former mayor in the riding, while the Bloc, which had held the riding for 16 years, once again relied on a former riding assistant. In times of crisis, the Conservative message on the economy obviously resonated, and the Bloc needs to rethink its strategy. Rivière-du-Loup brings back memories of the by-election in Roberval two years ago, when the Conservatives managed to takeover a Bloc stronghold by running former mayor Denis Lebel. He held on to the seat in the general election, and he is now a minister and regularly doles out cheques all over the province.

The three other by-elections all worked out according to plans, with the NDP winning in New Westminster—Coquitlam in British Columbian, the Conservatives taking Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia, and the Bloc holding on to Hochelaga.

Contrary to what the results suggest, the Liberals did run candidates in all four ridings. It’s just that they finished a distant third in all of them. While victories were not expected, it’s obviously not the type of defeat that a “government-in-waiting” and an Official Opposition can take lightly. At least the new chief of staff Peter Donolo knows exactly where things stand as he attempts to relaunch Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff’s political career.

2. The numbers. Overall, voters in the four ridings cast a total of 94,630 ballots, which went like this:

Bloc Québécois - 19,709

Conservative - 33,856

Green Party - 2,896

Liberal Party - 13,985

NDP - 23,180

Other - 1,004

The value of the mathematical exercise is debatable, but with 14.7-per cent of the vote, the Liberals collected almost 10,000 fewer votes than the NDP (24.5-per cent), and more than 20,000 fewer votes than the Conservative Party (35.8-per cent). It’s not all bad news for the Liberals: The Green Party also ran candidates in all four ridings, and got only 3 per cent of the votes.

3. The spin. I don’t know why, but the NDP and Conservative spinners were the first to respond to my request for their take on the by-elections. Maybe it has something to do with meeting or exceeding expectations. So here are their takes, with the Bloc and Liberal spins to come:

Brad Lavigne, NDP national director: “Jack Layton has increased his support in every region tonight. In B.C., the NDP has increased its hold over the Conservatives with its greatest level of support ever in the lower mainland. New Democrats are now the alternative to the Bloc in Montreal and to the Tories in rural Nova Scotia. The initial seeds of an electoral breakthrough for the NDP have been planted tonight. “

Fred DeLorey, Conservative spokesman: “Governments rarely win by-elections, so we are pleased we were able to win seats in Nova Scotia and Quebec. Placing this strong in the other ridings bodes well for our future. The Harper government has provided a steady hand on the economy, we are continuing to implement our Economic Action Plan and it’s clear that Canadians approve of the job we’re doing.

“I understand the Liberals are trying to spin their poor results – but the truth is these are by-elections during a global economic downturn, this is when the Official Opposition is supposed to do well. What kind of Official Opposition party hoping to win government does not do well in by-elections in the midst of a global economic downturn? The answer: one that’s in trouble.

“I think it’s very significant that they finished out of contention in all of these four by-elections after Michael Ignatieff personally visited and campaigned in all of them.

“Everyone was saying the Nova Scotia seat was a three-way race, the Liberals won this seat before, and they finished third tonight. Same story in British Columbia, they’ve won parts of this riding not long ago, out of contention tonight. In the Montreal riding of Hochelaga they were always coming in second with a decent percentage of the vote – yet tonight they finish behind the NDP at third.”