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The morning buzz: What's making news on Parliament Hill

1) Last man standing. When Michael Ignatieff’s new chief of staff Peter Donolo surveys the Opposition Leader’s Office next week – beginning his new duties – he’ll see many empty desks. Then, he may notice Warren Kinsella over in the corner. But that’s about it. Mr. Kinsella, a veteran of the Chrétien era, is one of the few senior strategists remaining after the exodus from the OLO. There were rampant rumours last night that the former Chrétien era speechwriter was being shown the door as head of the Ignatieff war room. But confirmation late last night proved those were totally untrue. Right now, Mr. Kinsella spends a couple of days in Ottawa and the rest of the time in Toronto, where his family and business are located. But the Kinsella rumours points to the unease in the Grit office. Over the past several days, Mr. Ignatieff has lost four of his most trusted aides – former chief of staff Ian Davey and former communications director Jill Fairbrother announced yesterday they were returning to Toronto. Two senior aides, Alexis Levine and Mark Sakamoto, announced last Friday they were also returning to Toronto. And it was confirmed last night that Dan Brock, a Toronto lawyer and close friend of Mr. Davey who he brought in as principal secretary last summer, is returning to his Toronto practice. This group of aides formed the inner circle around Mr. Ignatieff. Led by Mr. Davey, these aides have been with Mr. Ignatieff since his unsuccessful bid for the leadership in 2006. Their departure was precipitated by the announcement two weeks ago that Mr. Donolo was replacing Mr. Davey as chief. There has been restiveness in the office since the summer when Mr. Ignatieff began losing his momentum. Last September’s decision to try to defeat the Harper minority government did not sell with Canadians, forcing Mr. Ignatieff to back off. The one member of the tight Ignatieff team, who is likely to remain, is Sachin Aggarwal, also a Toronto lawyer. He is now the director of operations in the OLO.

2) Swimming with the salmon: a spiritual experience. Fin Donnelly is the NDP’s newest MP, having just won the by-election in B.C.’s riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam. The salmon crisis was a big issue during the campaign, something Mr. Donnelly knows all about. An environmentalist, Mr. Donnelly is also a marathon swimmer and has swum the 1,400 km. length of the Fraser River to draw attention to the plight of the salmon. Yesterday, NDP leader Jack Layton, obviously pleased with the win, recalled his conversations with his new MP. The two had spoken at length about the Fraser River swim. “He was a national level marathon swimmer,” said Mr. Layton, who swam competitively as a kid in Quebec. Mr. Donnelley told the leader that he swam the river in 28 days, through temperatures of 4 C and, suffered from hypothermia. On one 18-hour day he swam 120 km _ “like holy mackerel,” said Mr. Layton. “He actually touched the huge sockeye coming up the river to spawn. He said it was ‘like spiritual’. He’s a very cool guy.”

3) Groundhog Day. The more things change the more they remain the same when it comes to national opinion polls. After a year that included a near constitutional crisis, a prorogation, a bloodless coup in the Liberal ranks that saw Stéphane Dion replaced by Michael Ignatieff and a global economic meltdown, we are exactly where we were, according to new seat projections by EKOS’s Frank Graves. The national pollster plugged his numbers into his projection model, finding that the House of Commons would be a mirror of itself if an election were held today. His projections, based on a large sample of 3,500 Canadians surveyed over the past week, show that the Harper Conservatives would have 142 seats compared to the 145 (they picked up two in this week’s by-elections) they have now. The Ignatieff Liberals would have 78, one more than they have now. Jack Layton’s New Democrats would have 37 seats, which is exactly what they have now. The Bloc would be at 51; it has 48 now. A month ago, Mr. Graves’ polling had the Tories in majority territory, earning 167 seats. “As has often happened in the past when the Conservatives lunge into majority territory, their edge seems to erode over time,” says the statement, accompanying the Graves research.