News

My man Dave Leeder forwarded me this from the always interesting Basketball Prospectus which is pretty amazing. As most Raptors fans know by now, Toronto is both the best offensive team and the worst defensive team in the NBA so far. As I’ve discussed before, this represents a great opportunity: Even a small adjustment in defensive efficiency – enough to put the Raptors on par with dregs like Minnesota or Memphis – while roughly maintaining their offensive punch should yield some pretty promising results – as in wins. And while Toronto is never going to be the Celtics defensively, there’s no reason they can’t be, you know, Memphis.

But what’s interesting in this story is that the Raptors are on pace to be – simultaneously – the best and worst defensive team in modern NBA history (following the ABA-NBA merger) when adjusted to the league average. Setting either record would be kind of exciting; setting both at once is just great. At the very least, according to the post, the Raptors are almost a lock to be the best offensive team not run by Steve Nash. The downside is having teams this bad defensively almost always gets the coach fired, but I actually think these guys will defend better as they become more familiar with each other, so we’ll see.

What to make of this? As Kevin Pelton writes, by all means the Raptors should avoid any lineup changes that significantly alter their offensive flow. Instead the focus should be on incremental defensive improvements so they can gain the maximum benefit from their offensive punch.

I must say, the chance to watch history in the making is very cool. I’m excited.

Anyway...

One game, some things v3.15:

1. There is no point getting too carried away by a game like the Raptors played against Indiana. Consider, for example, Pacers’ head coach Jim O’Brien’s version of events:

“I’m very disappointed. I thought we were horrible at Charlotte and I think the first half here was just like Charlotte. We just did not play with any defensive force and, as a result, we got pounded.”

Or Troy Murphy’s: “This was an unacceptable performance for us. We have aspirations of making the playoffs and this is definitely not getting us going in the right direction. We have to come out and play a lot better.”

2. However: Taking care of business against teams that are struggling or are simply not very good is just about the only way that a team like the Raptors – decent talent; emerging chemistry; short on overall defensive thump and lacking LeBron, Kobe etc. – can get into that 45-plus win category which just might be good enough for a No. 5 seed, which should be the Raptors' No.1 goal at this stage.

3. Feel free to look this up – I will publish the results with thanks - but I’m sure the underlying strength of the Raptors' 47-win season in 2006-07 was their record against bad teams: They basically beat them all; which bolstered them against losing streaks and made up for the losses you can almost predict based on the schedule.

4. So far the Raptors have played six games against teams with losing records that figure to remain at, near, or below .500 – Memphis, Detroit, New Orleans; Chicago; the Clips; and Indy – and their record is 5-1. Throw in their win over Miami who just might be in that mix and it’s 6-1. That’s how a team gets into the playoff mix.

5. Another way is to build momentum when the opportunity allows. My suspicion is the Charlotte Bobcats will be a much tougher team as the season goes along. Crazy Stephen Jackson is a significant upgrade and paired with Gerald Wallace gives the Bobcats two of the toughest and most relentless wing players out there. Points will be at a premium – Larry Brown has the Bobcats ninth in opponents' field goal percentage and second in points allowed – so the Raptors will have to defend well and hits some threes.

6. And winning on the second night of a back-to-back, on the road is never easy; but stealing one here and there is how a positive season gets built.

7. A few random thoughts: I’ve always been a big Jeff Foster fan – no ego; beats the hell out of people, sets great screens _ he’d have been a great side kick for Bosh over the years; I think Tyler Hansbrough is going to be a very good NBA player. He’s awkward but has really nice touch and is more athletic than he gets credit for; he’s locked in at all times and was perfectly willing to bang Bosh and Bargnani hard and often. Dave Cowens had a Hall-of-Fame career as an undersized big man who played with lots of energy. Not saying Hansbrough is Cowens but he’s a steal as the No.13 pick…Calderon did an amazing job getting everyone off early last night – he went to DeRozan a couple of times; made a play for Hedo; the went to Bosh after Bargnani got a touch. It was almost like it was scripted. Good stuff.