Wednesday, November 4, 2009 4:46 PM
At the close: Stocks fizzle to finish
David Parkinson
Stock markets stumbled to a mixed finish, as the morning momentum fizzled following an underwhelming monetary-policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up a modest 45.30 points at 11,071.20, after having been up as much as 160 points earlier in the day. The Dow Jones industrial average, which was also up almost 160 points at its peak, closed up 30.23 points at 9,802.14. The S&P 500 edged up 1.09 points to close at 1,046.50, while the Nasdaq composite slipped 1.80 points to 2,055.52.
The Fed held the line on interest rates and stuck to its mantra that it expects rates to be kept at “exceptionally low levels” for “an extended period.” Its assessment of the US economy changed little from its September policy statement.
Perhaps most importantly for financial markets, the statement gave little indication that the Fed is headed toward a so-called “exit strategy” to unwind its various measures to stimulate the U.S. economy out of recession. The central bank did ease slightly its plans for direct purchases of debt and securities, but Fed watchers concluded that those small measures did not amount to the beginnings of an exit strategy.
“Fed policy makers no doubt had an in-depth discussion about exit strategies and how to communicate these to the public at large. However, in terms of near-term actions, there is no change in the picture: A highly accommodative stance is still needed,” said independent market research firm BCA Research.
“The Fed’s balance sheet is bloated, but liquidity injections into the banking system have still failed to trigger a self-feeding expansion in money and credit.”
The lukewarm reception of the Fed’s status-quo statement unwound earlier gains from the morning, when the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which measures service-sector activity, came in at 50.3 – down slightly from a month earlier, yet still in positive-growth territory. (Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.) Several key components of the indicator showed solid growth. Positive pre-market earnings reports in the U.S. and overseas had also set a positive early tone.
The Canadian market had also gotten a boost from rising oil and gold prices in the morning, but lost steam as those prices retreated from their highs. Gold ended up $8.60 (U.S.) at $1,093.50 an ounce in New York, a record-high close, after failing to crack the $1,100 barrier. Oil closed up 61 cents at $80.21 a barrel.
Six of 10 TSX industry sectors closed higher, led by consumer discretionary stocks, up 2 per cent, consumer staples, up 1.3 per cent, and materials, up 1.2 per cent. Information technology slumped 3.2 per cent to lead the downside, as sector heavyweight Research In Motion fell 4 per cent, giving back some of its big gains from Tuesday.
The Canadian dollar rose four-tenths of a cent to 94.21 cents, as the U.S. dollar slipped lower following the Fed announcement.
After the market closed, Cisco Systems reported better-than-expected earnings, mostly due to cost-cutting, although its revenues also topped analysts’ estimates.
Thursday will be another busy day for third-quarter earnings reports, with 29 S&P 500 companies scheduled to release their numbers. Thursday is also a heavy day for Canadian earnings, with 26 S&P/TSX constituents slated to report, including Manulife Financial Corp., Magna International Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
Investors will also be watching U.S. weekly jobless-claims data and third-quarter productivity numbers, as well as Canadian building permits for September.