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Just how bullish were those Canadian retail sales numbers?

Well, the number itself wasn’t setting any new standards; we have seen bigger gains this year than the 1-per-cent rise for September that Statistics Canada reported Monday morning.

But consider this. The gain was almost double economists’ consensus estimate of 0.6 per cent. It marked the second consecutive 1-per-cent monthly increase, and was the seventh rise in retail sales in the past nine months. Sales were up in six of eight segments, and in eight of 10 provinces.

Perhaps most importantly, though, the retail numbers solidify a very positive-looking month for the Canadian economy, which as of August was still bumbling most disconcertingly.

Taken together with previously released bullish data on wholesale trade and manufacturing sales, the numbers point to a Canadian gross domestic product rise of 0.4 per cent in September, said Royal Bank of Canada assistant chief economist Paul Ferley. That would be Canada’s best month of growth since August, 2008.

As Mr. Ferley points out, tepid data in the first two months of the third quarter (flat in July and down 0.1 per cent in August) will mean that even with a strong September, the quarter’s GDP growth pace will come in well below the 2.0-per-cent annualized pace that the Bank of Canada projected in last month’s Monetary Policy Report.

For the consumer sector, that suggests the best of both worlds for the coming months – an accelerating pace of spending, but with little danger that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates to dissuade consumers. It’s the kind of Goldilocks scenario retailers can embrace heading into the Christmas season.

Toronto Stock Exchange retail stocks are getting a nice little pop from this morning’s data. Canadian Tire, Rona, Reitmans and Forzani Group are all showing gains of about 1 per cent.

In the U.S. market, meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to this week’s kick-off to the Christmas retail season with cautious optimism. This Friday – the day after U.S. Thanksgiving – is “Black Friday”, a huge day of retailer sales aimed at launching the Holiday spending frenzy that retailers rely on each year to lift their profits into the black (hence the name).

According to a Reuters report, U.S. retailers and market research firms forecast that Black Friday sales will be up modestly higher compared with last year’s, which were actually a surprisingly strong despite the credit crunch and economic downturn, as retailers pulled out all the stops to get nervous consumers into their stores. One research firm forecast 2.8-per-cent growth in sales over the entire Thanksgiving extended weekend, compared with a year ago.

Of course, given the deep discounts shoppers have come to expect on the Black Friday weekend, its success doesn’t always bode well for the bottom line. It’s the entire Christmas season that makes or breaks the retail sector.

Both the National Retail Federation and the International Council of Shopping Centers forecast that overall Christmas-season sales will rise 1 to 2 per cent this year – a modest improvement, but one retailers would happily take after the 2.8-per-cent slump in overall Christmas sales last year.