The Globe and Mail

 

Blogs

Thursday, September 24, 2009 9:07 PM

Taking a page from Kenneth Fisher

John Heinzl

What are we looking for?

Today we'll look at a model portfolio based on the investment style of Kenneth Fisher, bestselling author, money manager and billionaire. Mr. Fisher is the son of Philip Fisher, who was known as the “father of growth investing” and had a major influence on Warren Buffett.

The Fisher method

In the mid-1980s, Mr. Fisher's book, Super Stocks , advocated using the price-to-sales ratio to find promising stocks. Because earnings are subject to volatility from one-time items, he focused on sales as a more reliable measure of a company's strength.

Mr. Fisher used different standards for different industries, but generally, the lower the price-to-sales ratio (PSR), the more attractive a stock is. He also looked for companies with strong earnings growth, low debt and high profit margins.

With technology and medical companies, another measure he used was the price-to-research ratio – the company's market capitalization divided by the company's spending on research and development.

Today's screen

We'll use a proprietary screening tool at Validea.com, a website that allows users to generate model portfolios based on the ideas of gurus such as Mr. Fisher.

“Fisher has changed his strategy today, but his PSR-focused approach has continued to produce strong results for us,” Validea.com says.

In fact, Validea.com's 10-stock model portfolio based on Mr. Fisher's method, and rebalanced quarterly, has returned an annualized 15.4 per cent since inception in 2003, beating all other 10-stock guru portfolios tracked by Validea.com. The 20-stock Fisher model portfolio has returned 10.7 per cent, good for fifth place in that category.

The results

The table presents the current 20-stock Fisher model portfolio, along with the date each company was added and the return since then. The “score when added” and “current score” columns take into account the number of tests the stock passed based on the guru's strategy. A 100-per-cent score means the stock met all of the guru's criteria; a lower score means the stock did not meet certain criteria.

As you can see, all 20 stocks achieved 100-per-cent ratings when they were added, but many have fallen since. When the next quarterly rebalancing takes place, some of these stocks may drop off the list.

All but three of the 20 stocks have risen in price since they joined the portfolio. While that's impressive, it's important to note that many were added earlier this year and have benefited from an exceptionally buoyant stock market.

Kenneth Fisher model portfolio
Name Ticker Date
added
Score
when
added %
Current
score %
Buy
price $
Frontier Oil Corp. FTO-N 4/17/2009 100 100 15.01
Chevron Corp. CVX-N 8/8/2008 100 100 84.4
Apogee Enterprises Inc. APOG-Q 7/10/2009 100 100 12.24
Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc. SCHN-Q 1/23/2009 100 100 37.18
Oil States International Inc. OIS-N 10/31/2008 100 100 23.13
L.B. Foster Co. FSTR-Q 7/10/2009 100 100 28.76
General Dynamics Corp. GD-N 7/10/2009 100 90 51.59
Raytheon Co. RTN-N 4/17/2009 100 90 42.51
Ceradyne Inc. CRDN-Q 4/17/2009 100 90 19.98
Darling International Inc. DAR-N 4/17/2009 100 90 6.36
Robert Half International Inc. RHI-N 4/17/2009 100 90 21.5
Cummins Inc. CMI-N 4/17/2009 100 90 29.79
Nutrisystem inc. NTRI-Q 4/17/2009 100 90 14.25
SXC Health Solutions Corp. (USA) SXCI-Q 7/10/2009 100 90 26.87
The Dress Barn Inc. DBRN-Q 11/30/2007 100 90 14.14
Lufkin Industries Inc. LUFK-Q 4/17/2009 100 60 32.08
BJ Services Co. BJS-N 1/23/2009 100 60 11.64
Western Digital Corp. WDC-N 4/17/2009 100 60 22.42
Allegheny Technologies Inc. ATI-N 7/10/2009 100 60 30.72
All figures in US$. Source: validea.com
View Full Table

Latest Comments

Number Cruncher Contributors

Scott Adams

Scott Adams is the investment editor for Report On Business and Globe Investor. He has been a business journalist for more than 10 years, worked as an associate analyst on Bay Street and has been The Globe and Mail Investment Editor since spring 2007.

 

Rob Carrick

Rob Carrick has been writing about personal finance, business and economics for close to 20 years. He joined The Globe and Mail in late 1996 as an investment reporter and has been personal finance columnist since November 1998.

 

John Heinzl

John Heinzl has been covering business and financial markets for the Globe and Mail since 1990.

 

Steve Ladurantaye

Steve Ladurantaye wrote about technology companies in Ottawa before reporting for the Peterborough Examiner and Kingston Whig-Standard, where he won a National Newspaper Award for explanatory journalism. After joining the Globe and Mail in 2007, his work has regularly appeared in Report On Business and Globe Investor Magazine.

 

David Parkinson

David Parkinson has been covering business and financial markets since 1990, and has been with The Globe and Mail since 2000. A Calgary native, he received a Southam Fellowship from the University of Toronto in 1999-2000, studying international political economics.

 

Shirley Won

Shirley Won covers the fund industry and investments. She joined the Globe and Mail in 1996, and has also worked at the Montreal Gazette and Canadian Press.

 

Gordon Edall

Gordon Edall is the deputy investment editor for Report On Business and Globe Investor. Prior to joining The Globe and Mail in fall 2006, he worked for BNN producing TV shows including Squeezeplay and Market Call.