Prime Minister Stephen Harper makes an announcement at Framecraft Ltd. in St. Catharines, Ont., on Thursday, January 22, 2015. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan DenetteNathan Denette/The Canadian Press
It had to happen eventually. As the good book says, the first shall be last and the last shall be first. Or as economists like to put it, mean reversion happens. What goes around comes around. Luck turns. See falling oil prices. See what that is doing to the economy and fiscal situation of Alberta. See the opposite impact it is likely to have in Ontario.
The Harper government often leaves the impression that it tilts West, and especially tilts to the oil industry, while going to great lengths to stick it to Ontario. Neither of those criticisms is entirely fair. Then again, neither is entirely without foundation. Two federal finance ministers in a row, both Ontario MPs, turned taking shots at Queen's Park into the most fun a card-carrying Conservative can have without a firearms acquisition certificate.
But now that oil prices are heading south, there's widespread speculation that the Harper government will try to win re-election by pivoting from the West and tilting East. Falling oil prices, a happily weakening dollar and a strengthening U.S. economy could add up to an economic boost for several provinces, above all Ontario, even as Alberta heads towards slowdown or even recession. Or as the Prime Minister put it the other day, "The oil industry isn't remotely the entire Canadian economy. There are many benefits to other parts of the economy because of these developments."
Ontario has long complained that it doesn't get a fair shake in Confederation. And many believe that now is a good time for the Harper government to change that story – by creating a whole new list of micro-constituencies to target, throwing pre-election goodies at a few favoured industries and companies in the province.
Politically, that might not be such a bad idea. Ontario is, as no one in Ottawa needs reminding, "vote-rich." On every other count, it would be an awful mistake. Canada needs a federal government that acts equitably among the provinces. It also doesn't need special deals for special industries. And the country needs a cleaner, leaner tax system with fewer breaks for insider constituencies, not the opposite.
The country needs a federal government that is awake to the major economic challenges that may be about to beset this country, and actively responding to them. Speaking for Canada, and not for a particular region or industry, would be a good place to start.