Jethro Soudant
If Winston Churchill were alive today, he might wryly observe that an iron curtain is descending on the North American continent. Unlike the original Cold War, which was driven by a combination of ideology, superpower rivalry and the race for nuclear superiority, the new Cold War on our continent is driven by a combination of fear, protectionism and a growing siege mentality where the weapons of choice are trade barriers, border controls and a mounting array of restrictive measures designed to impede the free flow of goods, peoples and services.
In distinct contrast to Europe, which has removed trade and other economic, social and political barriers after two disastrous world wars in the past century, North Americans are fast moving in the opposite direction. They are erecting barriers, including physical ones, to limit freedom of movement. We are all suffering from the delusion that "good fences" make for "good neighbours."
The desultory results of the Three Amigos summit in Guadalajara suggests there is little strategy or sense of direction in North American relations, either trilaterally or bilaterally. On key issues such as health, the environment, economic relations and security, the summit delivered a bromide of homilies and vague declarations, not a much-needed plan of action. Prime Minister Stephen Harper will get a second chance to put our bilateral relations on a different course when he goes to the White House on Sept. 16. But he faces a major uphill battle.
Much of the blame for this sorry state of affairs lies with the United States. In the aftermath of 9/11, the U.S. government moved swiftly to impose traveller restrictions across both its northern and southern borders, secure its airspace and beef up border patrols. Other measures and initiatives soon followed, including the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, which has morphed into a bureaucratic monster that marches to its own drummer, oblivious to the necessities of a deeply integrated North American economy.
President Barack Obama has rejected George Bush's "global war on terror" in favour of a strategy that is more narrowly focused on defeating al-Qaeda and engaging the Muslim world. But there is precious little evidence that this softening of America's global counterinsurgency campaign has led to a more relaxed attitude toward its northern or southern neighbours.
Predator drone aircraft equipped with highly sophisticated radiation detectors and biometric tracking devices are being tested by Homeland Security along the North Dakota-Saskatchewan border. A high flying balloon (an Aerostat), which carries cameras and other sensors, was recently spotted hovering above the St. Clair River between Ontario and Michigan. New passport regulations went into effect June 1, requiring anyone leaving or entering the United States, including from Canada, to have a passport. Business at the border is down by almost 20 per cent since this measure was introduced. The number of U.S. agents assigned to the Canada-U.S. border has tripled, even as the Mexican-U.S. border continues to draw ever more resources and attention.
But it's on the economic front that the new Cold War is escalating as the financial crisis and the lingering recession take their greatest toll. Mr. Harper's concerns about the U.S. stimulus package's Buy American provisions, which allow American state and local governments to shut out Canadian firms and suppliers, were played down by Mr. Obama at the Guadalajara summit. The President expressed some hope that reciprocal measures can be worked out between our provinces and their U.S. counterparts to open up procurement practices, but this will be a tough road to hoe without his personal leadership and engagement. More protectionism will come as new legislation to combat climate change winds its way through Congress.
Trade relations between Mexico and the United States also took a sharp downward turn earlier this year when Congress, citing safety concerns, cancelled a pilot project permitting Mexican truckers to transport their goods on U.S. highways. Mexico retaliated by slapping tariffs on $2.4-billion of U.S. imported goods.
Canada and Mexico are not entirely blameless for the downturn in relations. The imposition of visa requirements for Mexicans travelling to Canada has soured our relations with Mexico. The Prime Minister's candid admission that this measure was driven by the laxness of our own immigration and refugee laws underscores the weaknesses of our own political system under a minority government.
Mexican President Felipe Calderon is also deeply preoccupied with an increasingly violent war against Mexico's drug cartels that is eroding his government's popularity as the death toll mounts and ordinary citizens get caught in the crossfire. His own leadership - if not the future of Mexican democracy - looks increasingly fragile and tenuous.
Mr. Harper will have an opportunity to chart a new course when he meets Mr. Obama at the White House. But he will have to work especially hard to initiate a stronger bilateral dialogue with the Americans when border issues, trade protectionism, security and traveller restrictions are all rapidly moving in the wrong direction and we appear to be entering a continent-wide deep freeze.
Fen Osler Hampson is director of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University.