David McLaughlin is a Former Conservative party chief of staff at the federal and provincial levels
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Every campaign has an irrevocable rhythm. Beginning Friday, and all through Thanksgiving weekend with the operation of advance polls, that rhythm shifts into high gear as the ground game kicks in.
Advance polls, first intended as a convenience to voters who might be away or unable to vote on actual election days, have morphed into mini "e-days" for every local campaign in the country. The real election day, Oct. 19, is just one of several opportunities for Canadians to cast their ballot.
Campaigns are like huge icebergs. We see the part above the surface – the "air war" of leaders' tours and advertising – but the bulk of the iceberg is hidden below. This is the ground game of door-knocking and canvassing. It is where elections are won or lost. The air war is to persuade voters. The ground game is to identify voters. The two got together in what is known as GOTV – get out the vote.
As friendly as it is to have candidates come to your front door and ask for your support, this is no highbrow paean to the virtues of democracy. Its purpose is to find out who you are voting for.
For all the marketing and technological sophistication around us, voter identification is mostly trudge and drudge. The tools are basic: good shoes and a clipboard.
Legions of volunteers are deployed to knock on your door, introduce their candidate and record your voting intention – yes, no or undecided. That information is deposited in a party's GOTV database assigning a support number to your name and household. That guides what happens next.
This weekend, "Yes" voters across the country will be receiving a call, a brochure or a smiling "hard knock" on their door from their party of choice, urging them to vote that day. "No" voters will be ignored, while "undecided" voters will receive a call or visit directly from the candidate later in a last-ditch attempt at persuasion. The tempo of this effort will rise to a crescendo by early evening on Oct. 19.
Every vote cast for a candidate this weekend at an advance poll is one that cannot be taken back if the voter changes his or her mind. The ballot isn't just in the box, it is in the bank for the party that got that vote. This makes the big push on election day itself more manageable and efficient, ticking off thousands of voters who would otherwise have to be cajoled to the polling stations in a single 12-hour blitz.
Big ground-game questions surround each of the three major campaigns. But they boil down to this: advantage Conservative.
They are proven masters at it. With three federal election wins, the Tories have successfully linked targeted messaging to targeted voters in targeted ridings. With a harder, more committed vote pool than the other parties, Conservative efforts in mobilizing these identified voters can reap bigger seat dividends than expected. Without this edge, however, even a Conservative minority is at risk.
The Liberals' challenge is the opposite: a lack of organization. They have been riding a wave of late, but that wave has to be quite high to gain them another 100 seats from the 36 they had when the writ was dropped, to form a viable minority government. The Liberals have been gaining strength with some solid candidates, but they have further to go than the other parties. It is not at all guaranteed that they have the lower-iceberg bulk to actually identify Liberal-leaning voters and get them to the polls. It could leave the Grits shorter on election night than opinion surveys suggest.
The New Democratic Party has always benefited from extracurricular organizational help from unions. This election is no different. But the NDP won Quebec in 2011 with a wave that made local riding organization irrelevant. To win this time in Quebec, the NDP needs to truly have the organizational roots that four years of local MP representation and preparation can bring. Without Quebec, an NDP government is not possible.
Forget the headlines, platforms and opinion polls. In a tight election such as this one, the ground game is what counts.