Stephen Harper's worst fear has come true. After nearly a decade in power and a marathon campaign, the biggest challenge to his leadership turns out to be a Trudeau. A Trudeau with all the camera appeal and physical giftedness of his father, but without the towering intellect. A hugely energetic politician with an adorable young family and a powerful ability to connect. A rival who may be short on content, but is long on charm.
Justin Trudeau is the anti-Harper. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has turned into an also-ran. People have bought the message: If you want change, vote for Justin.
On Sunday, Mr. Trudeau spoke to a big Liberal rally in Brampton, Ont., where Trudeaumaniacs had been bused in by the thousands from across the province. "The prime minister's job is to bring Canadians together, not to tear us apart," he told the crowd. "[Mr. Harper's] first instinct is to appeal to the worst instincts. He and his party have brought unprecedented nastiness to our country's public life." He, Justin, will be a unifier, not a divider. He will build bridges, not burn them.
At times, Mr. Trudeau sounds like a camp counsellor leading a rousing chorus of Kumbaya. Consultation, collaboration and goodwill are the way to resolve all our national divisions, he promises. If we only listened to each other, we'd all get along! If Mr. Trudeau is the bridge, then Mr. Harper is the wedge. Niqab politics. Stripping convicted terrorists of citizenship. Promising hot lines so that citizens can report suspicious sightings of "barbaric cultural practices."
This is naked election opportunism. The elite media are convinced that Mr. Harper is whipping the masses into a dangerous xenophobic lather. Yet they can't explain why the overwhelming majority of the masses – not just the fearful, ignorant, Conservative ones – more or less agree with him. Perhaps our country really is a seething hotbed of bigotry. Or perhaps people have legitimate concerns about tolerance and belonging.
Ironically, the biggest trade deal in history – a matter of infinitely more consequence than the niqab – is getting a lot less air time. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, which gives Canada preferential access to huge Asian markets, is probably more important to the middle class than any other issue in this election. But neither the media nor Mr. Trudeau can make much hay from it. Too boring! Besides, the Liberals are free traders too. The only non-free trader is Mr. Mulcair, who seems to think that dairy cartels are good for poor people.
The Liberals weren't always so responsible. In Justin's father's day they were wild-eyed economic radicals. Pierre Trudeau's national energy program imposed draconian controls over the energy industry and sowed the seeds for western alienation – as well as for Mr. Harper's political career. Few people outside Alberta remember what a deeply divisive figure Mr. Trudeau was; he was nearly as loathed as Mr. Harper is.
Mr. Harper's contempt for the Trudeau name and the Liberal brand is not just political, but cultural. These are the eastern elites that ran Canada forever – arrogant, entitled, and disastrously wrong-headed in their belief in big government. These are the reasons he fled Toronto and headed west.
So for Mr. Harper this is personal, insofar as anything is personal with him. Being bested by Justin would be truly galling.
Mr. Harper had a vision for what he wanted to accomplish as PM, and, for better or for worse, he has accomplished much of it. So did Justin's father. But what is Justin's vision? Ian Brown's fascinating profile of Mr. Trudeau in Saturday's Globe and Mail includes some telling comments from Bob Rae, the retired Liberal politician, whom he interviewed in April. "I don't think he knows," Mr. Rae said then. "I think the thing we don't know enough about Justin is whether his leadership is about more than just him."
In fact, Mr. Brown argues, Mr. Trudeau has articulated a vision. It can be summed up as "the prosperity of the middle class, a healthy democracy and sustainable economy." Whether that amounts to something more than slogans on a T-shirt is up to you.
But maybe it doesn't matter. As Mr. Rae said, "He's not the smartest guy in the room. But he knows how to reach a room." And that is Mr. Harper's greatest fear.