Tamir Moustafa, associate professor of international studies at Simon Fraser University and the author of The Struggle for Constitutional Power: Law, Politics, and Economic Development in Egypt.
Many people worldwide will be terribly disappointed by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's nationally televised address on Thursday night. After three decades of authoritarian rule and 17 days of unprecedented popular protest, he delivered a patronizing speech "from a father to his children." But, while Egyptians are no doubt entitled to feel a great deal of resentment, there are a few reasons to be encouraged by the state of play.
First, it's absolutely clear that the pro-democracy movement has a great deal of muscle. It has overcome all of the usual regime tactics to control opposition, and it has managed to keep a great deal of forward momentum. Three weeks ago, no one would have imagined that such a popular movement could make such startling gains.
There's also a silver lining in Mr. Mubarak's refusal to step down at this particular point. If he had resigned Thursday, it would have automatically triggered a new election under current rules, without the opportunity to first amend the constitution. This would have given the regime all the tools it needed to elect another member from its inner circle. In other words, Mr. Mubarak's immediate resignation would have only prolonged Egypt's political crisis.
The other notable item that I and other experts on Egyptian constitutional law were watching for in Mr. Mubarak's speech was whether he (or the military) would break with the current constitutional order. This did not happen. And this, in some ways, is a good thing. While some parts of the existing constitution are regressive and must be amended, other aspects of it clearly outline the fundamental freedoms that the pro-democracy movement wishes to realize.
Rather than demanding a completely new constitution, which would take months to draft and would expose divisions within the opposition ranks, pro-democracy activists should push for targeted constitutional amendments, focusing on the dozen or so illiberal articles. Combined with the cancellation of the emergency law, judicial independence, international monitoring and relentless pressure at home, the regime can be forced to submit to free and fair elections.
Tamir Moustafa, an associate professor of international studies at Simon Fraser University, is the author of The Struggle for Constitutional Power: Law, Politics, and Economic Development in Egypt.