Nothing in politics is analyzed more excessively, and therefore invariably wrongly, than by-elections. So it has been since Monday night's results: two wins for the Conservatives and one for the Liberals.
Want to read national trends into three completely different ridings: suburban Vaughan north of Toronto, urban Winnipeg North and rural Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette? How about this: The Conservative vote fell in two out of three, the Liberal vote rose in two out of three and the NDP did disappointingly everywhere, including losing a stronghold in Winnipeg North.
But, of course, national trends usually don't mean anything in by-elections. Each riding has particular characteristics, with special candidates who won in defiance of past voting trends.
In Vaughan, Julian Fantino did what Conservative candidates often do under orders from head office: He hid from the media and eschewed all-candidates' debates. But he rode his Italian-Canadian name and big profile as a former head of the Ontario Provincial Police to victory.
Vaughan has been a Liberal stronghold. When a very popular MP, Maurizio Bevilacqua, quit to run for mayor of Vaughan, the Conservatives were given a chance. They seized it with Mr. Fantino, whose heritage in a riding with many people of Italian descent helped, as, presumably, did his "tough on crime" message.
The Liberal vote actually fell just 2.6 per cent, but the Conservatives surged by almost 15 per cent, while the vote for the small parties, which in Vaughan includes the NDP, collapsed. Clearly, the Conservatives will be buoyed by their win, although Mr. Fantino's tendency to speak his mind will now be curbed by having to sing from Prime Minister Stephen Harper's hymn book.
Does his win portend big Conservative breakthroughs among Italian-Canadians? It's not as if that community - or, more accurately, group of communities - never supports Conservatives. The party, provincially and federally, has a fair measure of support among Italian-Canadians, and indeed the provincial Conservatives under Mike Harris won some seats north of Toronto with large numbers of those voters.
In a by-election, the profile of one candidate is usually more consequential than in a general election. So it remains to be seen whether the Fantino factor can prevail again in Vaughan in a general election, and whether it has any significance in other parts of the 905 belt where Italian-Canadians are much less numerous.
Those who didn't know Winnipeg North, which included most of the national media, were undoubtedly surprised at the Liberal victory there. They should not have been.
When a party's vote jumps from 9.2 per cent in a general election to 46.3 per cent, something is happening very, very locally. That happening was Kevin Lamoureux, a long-time provincial Liberal MLA whose riding somewhat overlapped the federal one.
He had defied the general pattern of provincial Liberal losses to win time after time. He was especially plugged into the Sikh and Filipino communities that are important elements of the polyglot Winnipeg North. He therefore had very high name recognition in parts of the federal riding, an inherited organization, and a reputation for being a hard worker. He won the election more than the Liberal Party won it, another indication that national interpretations of local by-elections are fraught with uncertainties.
For the NDP, the result was deeply disappointing, because their candidate, Kevin Chief, a Métis, was outstanding. The party threw a lot into holding its bastion. The NDP share of the vote dropped just 1.7 per cent, but the Conservative vote collapsed. Presumably, a lot of it went to Mr. Lamoureux.
In Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, as the proverbial saying has it, the Conservatives could have run a yellow dog and won. Their share of the popular vote dropped from 61 to 57 per cent, but who cares when a riding is that solidly blue?
Warning signs therefore for the NDP in Manitoba? The party's candidate for mayor of Winnipeg lost. Their excellent candidate in Winnipeg North lost. And the NDP got whipped again in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette.
Yes, federal and provincial politics have different dynamics. Still, there can't be much joy in these federal and municipal results inside the office of Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger, whose provincial party is trailing in the polls.