For the first time since the Mulroney years, a federal government can truly claim to represent all of Canada – including a fair part of the West as well as Quebec. For the sovereigntists, whose greatest fear was to see Quebeckers taking an active part in the federal government, this is a crushing defeat.
The Bloc Québécois secured 10 seats, two seats short of the number needed for official party recognition, with a relatively modest share of the vote (19.4 per cent). Moreover, its leader Gilles Duceppe lost for the second time in Laurier-Sainte-Marie, a riding he had held for 21 years before the Bloc's debacle in 2011.
That year, Quebeckers rejected the Bloc for the New Democratic Party, but again, that was an isolationist reflex. At the time, the NDP had no more chance of forming the government than the Bloc and was seen as a perennial third party. The NDP gained official opposition status only because of the unexpected massive support of the second-largest province.
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This time, and for the first time since the Chrétien years, Quebeckers joined the Canadian wave and embraced the party that was headed for power. That many of them did it mainly because they wanted to get rid of the Harper government doesn't reduce the political importance of this vote. As much as they disliked the Conservatives, all these people would not have voted for the Liberals if they felt contempt and distrust for the party and its leader.
The passage of time, coupled with the personal charm of Justin Trudeau, has eroded the harsh memories that some still harbour about Pierre Elliott Trudeau's arrogant dismissal of Quebec nationalism; similarly, the new class of young urban professionals in Calgary and Edmonton have no recollection of Trudeau the elder's infamous national energy program.
The Conservatives exceeded expectations: They more than doubled their representation, to 12 seats in the Quebec City area. The bottom line is that 80 per cent of Quebeckers voted for a federalist party.
This is a bad omen for the Parti Québécois, whose leader Pierre Karl Péladeau enthusiastically endorsed the Bloc, appearing several times alongside Mr. Duceppe in partisan activities. Mr. Duceppe tried to regain his old core vote of sovereigntists and nationalists, but obviously didn't, since the sovereigntists account for much more than 20 per cent in the province. One wonders how the Bloc would have done if it hadn't had the niqab issue to chew on.
As for the NDP, its force was essentially based on its fledgling Quebec stronghold, which proved as fragile as a house of cards. It fell from its record 59 seats in 2011 to a meagre harvest of 16, in part because its real personality was difficult to define.
While most New Democrat MPs were a silent bunch whose positions were unknown, Mr. Mulcair's past contradictory political affiliations left voters confused. He got trapped into the niqab controversy. And his occasional angry outbursts during televised debates came as a sharp contrast with Justin Trudeau's convivial approach, a disposition that's in tune with the spirit of the times. People under 45 don't like hard, confrontational politics.
The NDP did not lose because it moved to the centre. Its fate would have been much worse if it hadn't. Its problem was that it couldn't match the Liberals in terms of political instinct and dynamism. The Liberals had a strong, time-honoured brand, while the federal NDP's brand was too radical for the average Canadian.
Lysiane Gagnon