The downfall of Dominique Strauss-Kahn is a morality tale that even Tom Wolfe, the author of The Bonfire of the Vanities, wouldn't have dared imagine.
On the morning of May 14, the head of the IMF was one of the most powerful men on the planet - not only was he running the organization that plays such an important role in the global financial crisis, the odds were that he would become president of France in May, 2012. Polls said Mr. Strauss-Kahn's victory over Nicolas Sarkozy was almost a done deal.
A few hours later, Mr. Strauss-Kahn was sitting in New York City Criminal Court next to an alleged drug dealer, waiting for his turn to appear before Judge Melissa Jackson.
The man who was about to become the socialist candidate against Mr. Sarkozy is accused of sexually assaulting a chambermaid in his suite at the Sofitel hotel. Now, this is something: The major figure of the French left accused of molesting the most vulnerable worker one can think of - a woman who collects dirty linens and cleans the toilets of a hotel, and a black Muslim immigrant to boot.
Mr. Strauss-Kahn quickly resigned from his IMF post, and his political career is finished. This extraordinary event is convulsing the French political scene. According to polls, many believe that Mr. Strauss-Kahn was set up, and conspiracy theories abound to explain the abominable downfall of the man who was, just a little more than a week ago, the most popular politician in France.
Mr. Sarkozy, who unexpectedly saw his most dangerous adversary annihilated by an ugly scandal, is observing a dignified reserve, but behind the thick walls of the Élysée, chances are that the champagne is flowing. Mr. Sarkozy, facing a lesser opponent than Mr. Strauss-Kahn, has a chance to be re-elected despite his current unpopularity, since he is a seasoned politician and a talented campaigner whom none of the remaining potential socialist candidates can match on the hustings and in face-to-face confrontations.
Mr. Sarkozy has another reason to celebrate: His wife, singer and composer Carla Bruni, is reportedly pregnant and due in October. During the spring presidential campaign, the baby would be about six months old - the cutest age of all. And if it's a girl, it will be even better. (Mr. Sarkozy has three boys and his wife has one). So there you are: In contrast to the socialists' fallen hero, a loving husband and pater familias cuddling a baby.
Neither François Hollande nor Martine Aubry, the major socialist contenders for the presidential election (the candidate for the Parti Socialiste will be elected in American style primaries this coming fall) has as much clout as DSK had, and no one is able to appeal to the centre-right electorate that would have voted for Mr. Strauss-Kahn because of his reputation as a serious and moderate international economist.
Ms. Aubry, the PS supremo, is a dogmatic, schoolmarm type who is too far left for the average voter, and Mr. Hollande, the bright and hard-working former head of the party, looks uneasy on TV and has no ministerial experience. But now that DSK is gone, other prominent socialists might be tempted to jump into the ring. So maybe there are more surprises to come.
Lysiane Gagnon