Do you want to place a bet on the outcome of the Oct. 19 election based on today's polls? Before you do, consider a little recent history.
Three men who became prime minister for long stretches of time trailed in the polls during Canada Day week. All were written off as roadkill against opponents who, in early July, appeared to have mojo.
Think back to the early summer of 1984. Liberal prime minister John Turner, having won the party leadership, had the wind at his back. That is, until the election campaign in which he and the Liberals were thumped by Brian Mulroney and the Progressive Conservatives, who won in a landslide.
Reflect for a moment on the situation facing prime minister Kim Campbell in July, 1993. She was a new leader, the first woman prime minister, a breath of fresh air who promised to do politics differently. Except that when the campaign ended, her Progressive Conservatives had won only two seats. They were thrashed by the Liberals under Jean Chrétien, dubbed "yesterday's man" by his detractors.
In the summer of 2005, Liberal prime minister Paul Martin seemed destined to win a whopping majority. The economy was humming, new Liberal candidates had emerged (remember Belinda Stronach?) and Mr. Martin unveiled big ambitions for Canada. Except that when the election campaign arrived, things went downhill for the Liberals. Stephen Harper became the Conservative prime minister, a job he still holds, at least until Oct. 19.
Go ahead, place a bet if you want on tomorrow's results based on today's polls, but remember that polls are snapshots of today and not necessarily predictors of what will transpire tomorrow. And, by the way, campaigns matter.
If you doubt that statement, ponder recent provincial elections. Who would have predicted an NDP sweep in Alberta a month before voting day? Think of the past British Columbia election: An apparently sure thing for the NDP turned into a Liberal triumph. Or Quebec, where the smarty-pants in the Parti Québécois government were so sure of impending victory that they called an election and got slaughtered by the Liberals. Even in New Brunswick, the Liberals won all right but not nearly by as much as had been predicted when the campaign began.
Why the swings? The obvious reason is that more citizens pay attention to politics during campaigns than at any other time. A lot of people don't think much, if at all, about political choices most of the time. They turn their fleeting attention to politics only during elections, if then.
These largely uninterested voters tend not to decide on issues or platforms, but on impressions and images of leadership, and sometimes on that vague but powerful sense that it's "time for a change." They are particularly susceptible to "information" conveyed by partisan political advertising, especially attack ads, which explains why parties rely so heavily on these ads that have nothing to do with substance but everything with image.
The summer before a vote is dead time, politically speaking. People have plenty better to do with their time than follow politics in a country with only one short burst of warmth and sun each year (except, of course, on the West Coast). Which is one reason why indications about which way political winds are blowing before and during the summer are not accurate predictors of what might happen come fall.
Then there are unexpected events – crises such as a financial collapse, slips of the tongue, good or poor performances by leaders in televised debates, an issue that catches fire and helps or hurts a party. Every party works hard to prevent damaging developments, but they can happen – a story out of nowhere on social media, a dumb statement by a local candidate, a tired leader who loses his or her cool, a maladroit comment that gets blown into something.
Then there is the contest between expectations and results. A leader – Justin Trudeau today – who has been knocked down a few pegs in recent months (at least in media coverage) might pleasantly surprise people if he can walk and chew gum at the same time. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is riding high these days, even being talked about as a prime minister, which means that anything he says will be scrutinized as never before.
Finally, there is Mr. Harper who, after so long in office, is who he is and what he has done. The election ultimately will be about him. You can indeed bet on that.