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The fates have been at it again. Three bombshell developments have shaken the political dynamic since last fall. One was the terrorist attack on Parliament Hill, the second was the steep plunge in oil prices, the third was the Alberta provincial election.

There's a thought out there that party leaders control outcomes. Think again. None of the party leaders had anything to do with these thunderbolts. They were bystanders. They were blindsided. And they probably will be struck by more shockers before this thing is out.

Since the autumn, the Liberals have gone from first to third in the polls, the New Democrats from third to first. Ipso facto, Justin Trudeau's campaign is judged a dud while Tom Mulcair's is inspired.

Is that the case, or would a more accurate synopsis be that the Trudeau Liberals have been stung by events beyond their control while Mr. Mulcair's NDP has significantly profited from them?

The Liberals began their slide with the terror attack last fall, which vaulted national security to a top-priority issue. The Conservatives immediately closed the gap and, in some polls, overtook them. But the Grits remained ahead of the NDP.

Then came the Alberta quake. The provincial New Democrats' stunning win in what was considered Canada's Texas translated to new-found credibility for the party at the national level. Prior to it, polls had seen them making some gains. But now they took off, passing the Trudeau team and moving to No. 1 in the polls.

The Liberals can't blame freakish developments for everything. For example, Mr. Trudeau has made things worse for his party on the security file with his support for Bill C-51. There have been other problems with his campaign. But the fates certainly haven't been smiling on him.

As for the Conservatives, they profited from the terror, but fortune has turned against them since that time. They have been pounded by the unforeseen energy price drop and what happened in Alberta.

The federal NDP had nothing to do with the provincial party's victory in that province. Remember Mr. Mulcair's talk of dutch disease? It was hardly a hit on the flatlands. Team Orange also got a good boost from the oil price plunge, which has put Canada near or in recession and dug a hole in the Conservatives' argument that they have been wonderful economic managers.

That was a questionable surmise to begin with. Since we're on the subject of karma, no one should underestimate how it helped the Conservatives. They had the fine fundamentals from the previous government working in their favour, energy prices held up splendidly through the financial crisis and they were, luckily as it turned out, forced by the opposition into bringing in their much-touted stimulus program.

Last Christmas, the Tories were running quite high in public opinion and you can bet that many of them, Stephen Harper included, are now kicking themselves for not taking the big gamble and going with an early election call at that time. The impact of the energy price tumble would not have been as grimly felt as it is now. Neither the Alberta election nor the Mike Duffy trial would have taken place.

Back in the winter, the chances of the NDP winning an election would have been markedly slim. Not so now. Fortune might frequent them again this time as it did in the 2011 campaign when the Bloc Québécois collapsed, allowing the NDP to win 59 seats in Quebec. Going into that election, Mr. Mulcair told me that the party hoped to win a half dozen or so.

Their momentum is now strong and Mr. Mulcair is skilled enough to hold it. But since the campaign so far has primarily been about events beyond the control of the leaders, who is to say it won't continue that way? Another terror shock could yet play a pivotal role, one which would favour the Tories. A big revelation at the Duffy trial could have the opposite effect.

There have been three thunderbolts so far. Get ready for more.

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