If it's true that everyone has his or her day in the sun, the same is likely true for Canadian provinces. And if it's true for the provinces, 2008 is likely to find Saskatchewan basking in glorious sunshine.
For years, Saskatchewan has grumbled at living in Alberta's shadow. Everything in that province seemed bigger, richer, sexier. Since the Second World War, Alberta's population has quadrupled, whereas it has remained more or less unchanged in Saskatchewan. At one point during the heyday of European immigration to the Prairies, Saskatchewan was the third most populous province. Today, it ranks sixth, and Nova Scotia is closing in.
It's been a tough slog for Saskatchewan. The glories of being the "breadbasket of the world" faded decades ago, when grain prices started their long, painful decline. Once given proper technology and farming techniques, warmer countries such as Australia, Argentina and Ukraine turned out to be a lot better at growing wheat than Saskatchewan. The Prairies are halfway to the North Pole. With the increased grain and oilseed production - not to mention farm subsides in the U.S. and European Union - the term "profitable farming" became a bit of an oxymoron for Saskatchewan.
Meantime, twin sister Alberta was getting fat on crude oil and natural gas after the war. Edmonton and Calgary boomed, and the province grew incredibly wealthy. By the late 1970s, they even got NHL hockey - the ultimate betrayal, since Saskatchewan has produced more National Hockey League players per capita than anywhere. (Saskatoon's bid for a team in the 1980s fizzled miserably.)
But smiles are finally starting to replace the grumbles, and for good reason. The province's base of natural resources is astoundingly rich, and far more diversified than Alberta's. It has crude oil, uranium, potash, diamonds, gold and other base metals - the prices for all of which are either at or very near record highs.
On top of this, grain and oilseed prices are enjoying lofty heights not seen in decades, thanks in no small part to U.S. ethanol policies and world corn prices. Compared with Alberta, Saskatchewan's mix of farming is grain heavy and livestock light. And these days, grain farming is a bit more profitable than cattle ranching (but don't get any of these farmers going about their input costs).
It gets better. For the first time in several years, Saskatchewan's population is starting to grow. The steady outflow of bright, strapping young farm kids to Alberta has slowed. A long-standing joke used to be that Alberta's greatest advantage was Saskatchewan's education system. No one in Saskatchewan was laughing.
Now, the joke is on Alberta. Saskatchewan's greatest advantage is sky-high real estate and traffic woes in Calgary. Some former Saskatchewanians are cashing in on their homes in Alberta and moving back. Jobs are plentiful, wages are rising and the biggest boom in more than a generation is calling them back.
No one could be happier about all of this euphoria than premier-designate Brad Wall. What better time to be elected leader than on the cusp of economic growth? Saskatchewan's economy could easily overtake Alberta's No. 1 spot as growth leader this year or next.
People in Saskatchewan hate comparisons with Alberta, and for good reason. Saskatchewan has always set its own course and destiny. Despite being born as twins, the two are remarkably different. Their political histories, their economies and their collective mythologies are not the same. Even the food is somewhat different. (Ask someone from Saskatchewan what Vi-Co is.)
But, at this point in its history, Saskatchewan needs to look to Alberta more than ever - not to become more similar, but to learn from the mistakes made by Albertans. For the past five years, Alberta's economy has exploded. And as wonderful and wealthy as Alberta is, mistakes have clearly been made navigating through an economic boom.
Saskatchewan has a chance to avoid some of the worst errors made by its bigger, brasher twin sister. The day in the sun has arrived for Saskatchewan. But a word of advice from Alberta: Apply sunscreen liberally. It doesn't take long to get a nasty burn.
The opinions expressed are Todd Hirsch's own. Mr. Hirsch is a Calgary-based senior economist at ATB Financial
Todd Hirsch