For most of the New Democratic Party's existence, Quebec was the impossible dream, impossible to penetrate even as Tommy Douglas, David Lewis and Ed Broadbent did their successive best to overcome the steady resistance of French-speaking Quebeckers. The conventional wisdom was always that the NDP could never form government without making at least some inroads into Canada's second-most populous province.
But then, lo and behold, in 2011, by an extraordinary turn of events, Quebec became the party's main stronghold, with more than half its caucus hailing from the province. It remains so, even if the warm and likeable Jack Layton, who won Quebeckers' hearts, has been replaced by the more abrasive figure of Thomas Mulcair – a man with a better intellect but who looks angry even when he's smiling.
According to a recent CROP poll, the NDP is now the first federal party in Quebec, ahead of the Liberals by 12 points with the francophone voters who control most of the province's ridings.
Mr. Mulcair was the most frequent choice as "best prime minister," ahead of Justin Trudeau by seven points. Moreover, the NDP is eating away the last support the Bloc Québécois clung to after the 2011 election rout. Under the lacklustre leadership of hard-line independence advocate Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc is down to just 14 per cent support, two points behind the chronically unpopular federal Conservatives. CROP's poll shows that the Bloc can't even count on a majority of Parti Québécois voters – 31 per cent of those intend to vote for the New Democrats, 18 per cent for the Liberals and 7 per cent for the Conservatives.
These numbers suggest that the NDP will keep most of its earlier gains in the next election, although some of its ridings – those with substantial anglophone populations – will go to the Liberals.
Even though many nationalists still fume at the mention of his father's name, Mr. Trudeau is generally well received wherever he goes – on the weekend, he was signing copies of his autobiography at the Salon du Livre, the Montreal book fair – and he attracted a long line of fans and well-wishers as well as curious onlookers. Mr. Mulcair doesn't have the same celebrity aura, but for now, at least, his party seems well entrenched in Quebec. His aggressive performance in the House of Commons, as well as his impeccable French, have won him the reputation of being serious and responsible.
But the NDP's good standing in Quebec comes with a price. Elsewhere in Canada, the party is losing steam, seemingly returning to the traditional third-party role it held before Quebec propelled it to Official Opposition status.
The party's vote share has declined in nearly all of the by-elections held since 2011. It failed to win Toronto Centre, an urban riding that should be part of its natural constituency. It lost Trinity-Spadina, the former riding of Mr. Layton's widow, Olivia Chow. It came a distant third in Whitby-Oshawa, parts of which made up a riding once held by Mr. Broadbent.
This slide is mainly due to the rise of the Liberals, as well as the resilience of the Conservatives. But is something else at work? Have the New Democrats lost part of their national appeal because they've had to accommodate their Quebec MPs (including many sovereigntists) and cater to the nationalist francophone voters who now constitute their main base? Is the NDP too close to Quebec for its own good?
Lysiane Gagnon