Is the future of the auto industry electric cars?
Nissan believes so. It expects that by 2020, 10 per cent of new cars sold in the world will be battery-powered. If the global car market is 70 million a year in 2020, that’s seven million new electric vehicles a year.
Moreover, by 2050, there could be two billion cars on the road – twice as many as there are today – and 40 per cent of them could be electric, says Royal Dutch Shell, as reported in The Wall Street Journal.
Those are the optimists, those who see a booming marketplace for EVs. Of course others, such as J.D. Power and Associates, are less enthusiastic. A J.D. Power study predicts pure EV sales will reach 1.3 million a year by 2020 – not seven million.
As for Canada, well, this country may have cold winters and plenty of open spaces – both of which present a problem for mass adoption of EVs – however, this country also has an abundance of clean electricity. Nissan Canada’s head of strategic planning, Ian Forsyth, notes that 70 per cent of Canada’s electricity comes from hydro facilities or some other “clean” source. In B.C., Manitoba and Quebec, essentially 100 per cent of the electricity comes from non-polluting, renewable sources.
Thus, Nissan Canada is hyped to start selling its Leaf battery electric vehicle (BEV).
“It’s a real car. You can drive it in any kind of traffic, with no compromises,” he says.
The Leaf will go on sale next fall in Canada. By then, if there are any EV bugs, they will have been seen in the markets where the Leaf hits showrooms this month: the United States, Portugal, The Netherlands and Japan. Forsyth adds that the coming year’s Leaf production of 50,000 units – all built in Japan – is sold out.
Already, 5,000 Canadians are what Nissan calls “hand raisers” – they’ve indicated a serious interest in buying a Leaf next year. By the middle of 2011, Nissan Canada is aiming for 10,000 hand raisers. “And we need to ensure they have a satisfying experience,” says Forsyth, adding that Nissan Canada has not yet set a price for the Leaf, though in the U.S. the car sells for just under $33,000.
Nissan, of course, is not the only auto maker getting in the EV business. General Motors’ Chevrolet Volt EV is also going on sale in the U.S. It differs from the Leaf primarily in that it has an on-board gasoline motor that recharges the battery pack – a so-called range extender. In all other respects, the Volt is an EV.
Nissan, Chevrolet and many other auto makers can’t know exactly what reception their EVs will get. Nissan, says Forsyth, will market its Leaf as a no-compromises automobile with a 160-km range and a 140 km/h top speed. The Leaf will also come with an eight-year, 60,000-km warranty on the battery. Perhaps the most interesting selling point, though, is on the cost side. Nissan is arguing the Leaf should be less expensive to drive than a gasoline car.
The numbers: a typical gasoline car getting a combined 8.0 litres/100 km will have an annual fuel cost of $1,800 or $0.08 per km (at $1 a litre). The Leaf? At current electricity rates (averaging $0.06 a kilowatt-hour) the per km cost comes down to $0.009, with annual energy costs coming in at $180 or one-tenth the cost of a comparable gasoline-powered, four-door hatchback.
The Leaf will cost more up-front than a comparably sized family hatchback, though some of the difference will be offset by the amount saved on gas. Subsidies also factor into the cost equation. The Government of Ontario will give the first 10,000 EV buyers up to an $8,500 subsidy.
