Marcus Rothoff, director of Volvo’s autonomous driving program, says younger people are more likely to accept self-driving cars, as it will allow them to work or socialize instead of being frustrated by traffic.
In a small conference room high above Volvo's hometown, Marcus Rothoff begins by showing a video. A young man and a young woman are separately commuting to work. The landscape in the background indicates each is in a train, although not the same one. They are both already on the job.
We see the woman sketch something on her tablet, and then e-mail the design to the man. The camera zooms out, and it isn't a train she's riding in – she's sitting at the wheel of a moving car. Job done, she takes hold of the steering wheel, pushes a button and takes control.
The video's title: "Our New Feature – Spare Time."
Ultimately, the concept of widespread, autonomous driving promises broad societal benefits – environmental, safety, traffic flow and sustainable energy – but it will require correspondingly huge societal investments of time, money and co-operation. In the meantime, Volvo is forging ahead with the in-car pieces of the puzzle while promoting the benefit that the individual driver will appreciate: more time.
"We're not focused on spectacular concepts, but want to be first with real-world production offerings," says Rothoff, director of Volvo's autonomous driving program.
Even if, overnight, every new car had car-to-car and car-to-infrastructure communication capability, it would take 15 to 20 years for the automotive population to turn over. And who knows how long it will take governments to install the required infrastructure capability? So Volvo isn't waiting.
There's no fixed date, but the goal is to have, "as soon as possible … a self-driving car that can be operated in the traffic environment as we know it today," says Rothoff's colleague, Erik Coelingh. It will need 3G connectivity, because you can't count on all cars talking to each other; new levels of detailed digital mapping currently under development (GPS is not accurate enough to show the location of every sign post or lamp standard, or even which lane the car is in); and a suite of sensors – cameras, radar and laser – to provide a 360-degree view around the car.
In this scenario, the automated driving would be temporary, for example, to allow the driver to respond to an important text. "If you are freed up to do what you want, you don't mind handing over control," says Rothoff. "It's freeing up time to safely prioritize something else."
Rothoff says that, traditionally, a car has represented freedom, but today's always-connected younger generation may see driving as the opposite, "because they are stuck in a steel cage that doesn't allow them to be constantly connected." A self-driving car would allow them to work, play or socialize instead of enduring the boredom, anxiety or frustration of traffic.
Many cars on the road can already provide some level of driving assistance, including Volvo's new XC90 SUV, which can detect vehicles, cyclists or pedestrians in front, and can brake, steer or accelerate automatically. But, says Coelingh, "it still requires the driver to keep their hands on the steering wheel to ensure the driver is still supervising. Because there are exceptional situations that the car cannot deal with."
Although the boundary can be blurry, assisted driving and autonomous driving are separate things. It's a big leap from one to the other. "If you want to go to the fully autonomous car, the technology has to be so robust it can deal with everything, because the driver is usually doing something else. Creating this robustness is really key."
And then, there have to be backup systems and redundancies because hardware can fail. "Today, the driver is the backup system," Coelingh says, "but you cannot count on that in a self-driving car."
All this, in a brand that has long been the poster car for safety, but is increasingly challenged to maintain that distinction now that every auto maker is aboard that bandwagon. Volvo's response is its Vision 2020 concept, with a mission statement that reads: "Our vision is to design cars that should not crash. In the shorter perspective, the aim is that by 2020 no one should be killed or seriously injured in a new Volvo car. In 90-95 per cent of all crashes, human error is partly or fully responsible. Eliminating human error offers the largest potential in reaching the target. An automation system that does not require supervision can be made safer than one that relies on human supervision."
Starting in 2017, Volvo's industry-first real-world pilot program begins. One hundred cars with self-driving capability will be leased to the public in Gothenburg. The cars will be programmed to allow autonomous driving on a 50-kilometre commuter ring road around the city. They will also be able to self-park without the driver being present.
No fast highways, then, and no neighbourhood roads where pedestrians are likely to be encountered. The technology isn't robust enough yet. But this early-stage autonomous driving will be technically possible in places where customers have the greatest need for it – low-speed commuting.
Even this limited scope is challenging, says Coelingh. "But we think it is really important to try to make that step to force ourselves to answer all the questions that occur."
The writer was a guest of the auto maker. Content was not subject to approval.
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