Copper price ends flat

A drill machine at the Andina copper mine in Chile.

A drill machine at the Andina copper mine in Chile. Ivan Alvarado/REUTERS

Investors cautious ahead of Fed announcement on interest rates

Chris Kelly and Michael Taylor

New York, London Reuters

Copper prices HG-FT bounced from near two-week lows and ended little changed Tuesday, as investors sided with caution ahead of the conclusion of a two-day Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting in the United States, the world's largest economy.

Copper for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division rose 1.10 cents (U.S.) to end at $2.9560 a pound, reversing an earlier slide to $2.8950, its lowest level since Oct. 21.

On the London Metal Exchange, benchmark copper closed down $90 at $6,460 a tonne, after hitting a near two-week low at $6,372.25 earlier in the session. After hours, the metal used in power and construction traded back up near unchanged at $6,534.

The U.S. Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting Tuesday. Investors are focused on what the central bank has to say about economic growth and the future direction of benchmark interest rates.

“If the Fed reveals a bit of a bias, signalling that easy money conditions are coming to an end, that could spark another rally in the dollar and we could see another shoe drop in commodity prices,” said Edward Meir, energy and metals analyst for MF Global in New York. “Everyone is short the dollar and long commodities.”

The dollar rose to a one-month high against a basket of currencies, making dollar-priced commodities less attractive for non-U.S. investors.

The Fed will announce its decision on Wednesday, and is expected to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged near zero.

The market is also waiting for the monthly employment report from the United States on Friday.

The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast at 9.9 per cent in October from 9.8 per cent in September, while non-farm payrolls are forecast to fall 175,000 from a drop of 263,000.

“If the unemployment rate goes through the psychological 10 per cent, that could hit sentiment ... But given the manufacturing data yesterday, the unemployment number could be better than expected,” said John Meyer, analyst at investment bank Fairfax.

Copper found late support from stronger outside markets like gold, which hit a record high above $1,084 an ounce after Monday's International Monetary Fund sale of 200 tonnes of the precious metal to India's Central Bank.

On the economic calendar, new U.S. factory goods orders for September beat Wall Street expectations and gained 0.9 per cent, the Commerce Department said.

Aluminum AL-FT closed at $1,908 from $1,915 Monday, after earlier touching its lowest level since Oct. 15, at $1,883. Price prospects for the metal used in transport and packaging are weaker because Chinese producers have been ramping up output due to recent higher prices, up more than 20 per ent this year.

Stocks near record highs above 4.5 million tonnes and demand uncertainty will also keep a lid on aluminum prices.

“The outlook for prices remains uncertain. On the one hand, a strictly fundamental analysis of current market conditions suggests that an arguably overdue correction should bring prices closer to equilibrium,” consultants GFMS said in a release.

“On the other, ongoing strong presence of investors on the long side could well support prices' upward trajectory until a more noteworthy improvement in fundamentals emerges.”

Primary aluminum for delivery in the first quarter of next year is being offered at higher premiums than this quarter, however, indicating physical supplies remain tight for coming months, traders said.

But traders said the selling of metals Tuesday in Europe could in part be because of plans by Britain's Lloyds Banking Group to raise £13.5-billion ($21.99-billion) in the world's largest ever rights issue.

Zinc ended at $2,180 a tonne from $2,195 Monday. Lead closed at $2,270 from $2,298, nickel at $17,800 from $18,060 and tin at $14,790 from Monday's last bid at $14,775.

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