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Colin Cieszynski

The Before the Bell report is compiled by editors of The Globe and Mail and is updated throughout the morning to reflect latest developments. Colin Cieszynski, Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician, is chief market strategist with CMC Markets.

‎Stock markets are mixed in the wake of last night's debate and today's European Central Bank press conference. Canadian and U.S. index futures, positive earlier this morning, have turned slightly negative ahead of the opening bell. West Texas intermediate crude oil is down more than 1 per cent in what looks like a normal correction following a big rally Wednesday.‎

Currency trading has been mixed, gold is holding on to most of Wednesday's gains, and the U.S. dollar is up slightly against many other currencies.

The loonie is under the most pressure among major currencies, with traders still speculating on a possible ‎Canadian rate cut after the Bank of Canada Wednesday cut its GDP forecasts, pushed out the projected return to full economic speed out to mid-2018, and made dovish forward-looking comments. An actual rate cut could be counterproductive to the government's efforts to rein in house prices, but the threat of a cut enables a lower loonie to continue to do the bank's heavy lifting on stimulus.

Like many people, I stayed up to watch the big debate Wednesday night plus media comments afterwards. The main focus has been on whether Donald Trump would accept the results of the vote or not with the Democrats in full freak out mode.

This should send a warning to traders about the results. Currently, markets are pricing in a decisive Clinton win and in fact the Mexican Peso rallied following the debate, indicating traders thought Hillary Clinton won. The way Democrats have been hitting the panic button over Trump's move to keep people guessing indicates that it's a much closer race than the polls are suggesting. After all, if it's a blowout, what would there be to contest?

Also interesting was that a CNN poll showed 52 per cent of respondents (who apparently skew Democrat) thought Clinton won the debate, but this was down from 57 per cent who thought she won the second debate. What this all means is that the election may be a lot closer than people think, and that a Brexit style surprise is still possible so traders should have a plan and not be complacent.

This morning, focus turns to the ECB meeting. The European Central Bank kept interest rates and policy guidance unchanged but may lay the groundwork for more easing to come in December in its press conference later today, as it tries to sustain a long-awaited rebound in consumer prices.

Holding interest rates deep in negative territory and maintaining bond purchases at €80-billion per month, ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to emphasize the continued need for monetary stimulus, reinforcing expectations for an extension of the ECB's asset buys beyond its scheduled end next March.

Now, here is a closer look at what's going on this morning and what is still to come.

MARKET DATA:

Futures (as of about 830 a.m. ET)

Dow -0.04 per cent; S&P 500 -0.12 per cent; Nasdaq: -0.05 per cent; TSX 60 +0.02 per cent

Equities
Japan's Nikkei +1.39 per cent
Shanghai composite index 0.00 per cent
Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.30 per cent 
Germany's DAX +0.06 per cent
London's FTSE -0.16 per cent
France's CAC 40 +0.02 per cent

Commodities
WTI crude oil (Nymex Nov.) -1.49 per cent at $50.83 (U.S.) a barrel
Gold (Comex Dec.) +0.09 per cent at $1,271.50 (U.S.) an ounce
Copper (Comex Dec.) -0.45 per cent at $2.09 (U.S.) a pound

Currencies
Canadian dollar -0.19 at 76.00 cents (U.S.)
U.S. dollar index +0.012 at 97.932

Bonds
Canada 10-year bond yield +0.004 at 1.19 per cent

KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Oct. 15. They came in at 260,000, versus the estimate of 250,000.

Still to come:
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for September. Consensus is an annualized rare increase of 0.4 per cent.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for September. Consensus is up 0.2 per cent from August.
(10:30 a.m. ET) EIA natural gas report.

KEY STOCKS TO WATCH

Verizon Communications Inc. said third-quarter earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs and severance costs, were $1.01 per share. The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 99 cents per share. The largest U.S. cellphone carrier posted revenue of $30.94 billion in the period, which missed Street forecasts. Seven analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $31.14 billion.

Shares of American Express jumped 5.6 per cent in premarket trading after the credit card issuer strong results and forecast.

Kinder Morgan rose 2.9 per cent in heavy premarket trading after the pipeline operator said it was not hurt by any customer defaults in the third quarter.

EBay was the biggest loser among S&P 500 companies trading premarket after the online marketplace gave a disappointing forecast for the current quarter, which includes the holiday shopping season.

Other earnings today include: Alliance Data Systems Corp.; Altagas Ltd.; Amazon.com Inc.; American Airlines Group Inc.; Celestica Inc.; Danaher Corp.; Dunkin' Brands Group Inc.; E*TRADE Financial Corp.; Hyundai Motor Co.; IMAX Corp.; Microsoft Corp.; NetSuite Inc.; Nucor Corp.; PayPal Holdings Inc.; PPG Industries Inc.; Schlumberger NV; Snap-On Inc.; Union Pacific Corp.; Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.; Winpak Ltd.

Also see: Thursday's small-cap stocks to watch

With files from wire services

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