A man passes by a Couche Tard convenience store in Montreal. CIBC sees the company’s stock as one that will weather 2015 well.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
All current evidence to the contrary, the Canadian stock market has suffered through the worst of the commodity-related selloff, and the year ahead should see an easing of the pressure on valuations, CIBC World Markets said in a research note.
The bank is taking a positive stance on Canadian equities for 2015, arguing that stocks look reasonably priced given the subdued commodity and currency environment.
"While additional headwinds can always develop, we would note that, with oil, gold and the Canadian dollar all well off their 10-year highs, the majority of the relative underperformance of the TSX should be well baked into current equity levels," said the report, which was distributed on Tuesday.
"This isn't to say that we expect any of these three important variables to rally strongly in the short term – we don't – but investors at least should not have to fight such strong headwinds over the next two to three years."
The S&P/TSX composite index can be expected to register a high-single-digit percentage gain this year, with key supports coming from the U.S. economy, reasonable Canadian valuations compared to historical metrics, and the end of the bond rally. "We find it hard to believe that fixed income represents a rewarding investment alternative to equities," the report said.
It's within that backdrop that CIBC made its top stock picks for 2015.
"The first important theme we see is the analysts correctly skewing to quality names, as well as better balance sheets in the resources sector. Whether one has a positive view on commodities or not, having the ability to ride out storms is a great risk-mitigation tool," the report said.
The resource names meeting those criteria include Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Eldorado Gold Corp., Seven Generations Energy Ltd., and Suncor Energy Inc.
Another investing theme apparent in CIBC's list is growth through acquisitions. CGI Group Inc., Alimentation Couche-Tarde Inc., and Element Financial Corp. all have proven track records of aggressive strategic acquisitions, the report said. "The current environment of low financing costs and supportive tax regimes offers an ideal breeding ground for such a growth approach."
The list of picks also includes Manulife Financial Corp. and Norbord Inc. as companies poised to benefit from consolidation.
The third theme identified by CIBC identifies stocks pegged to some kind of potential catalyst. They include Agrium Inc., which has been in discussions with activist investor ValueAct Capital Management LP.; Celestica Inc., which has a solid business and much cash to deploy; and First Quantum Minerals Ltd., which is expected to bring its Sentinel mine and smelter project in Zambia online this year.
Tim Shufelt