Here's Allan Robinson's At The Bell which you'll find in Thursday's newspaper: There should be plenty of doom and gloom Thursday with the release of the advanced U.S. gross domestic product data for the third quarter. The economy is forecast to have fallen off a cliff, shrinking 0.5 per cent at an annual rate in the third quarter, compared with the 2.8-per-cent growth rate during the second quarter of 2008, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg. This would be the most significant economic slump since 2001. "Real gross domestic product [GDP]probably declined about 1 per cent annualized in the third quarter, paced by the first quarterly decline in consumer spending since the 1991 recession," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. "Outside of exports and government spending, everything else likely collapsed in the quarter." WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS? Also due out Thursday is the personal consumption data, which are widely expected to signal the start of a protracted recession. Personal consumption is forecast to have declined 2.4 per cent during the third quarter. The decline could well exceed 3 per cent, which would be the worst decrease since 1980, although if the consensus estimate is correct, it would be the worst drop since 1990, said James Marple, an economist with TD Securities Inc. Against that dire background, yields on U.S. Treasuries remain at depressed levels even though the government will be tapping the markets on a regular basis to raise cash. Thursday, the government will auction five-year notes to raise $24-billion (U.S.) of new cash. On Tuesday, the government sold $34-billion in two-year notes at a yield of 1.6 per cent and demand was strong. "There's nothing to say that U.S. yields need to climb higher," said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rate strategist with TD Securities. "It speaks to the lack of alternatives. Where are you going to put your money?" The U.S. debt level remains quite manageable relative to the gross domestic product, Mr. Lascelles said. Asian central banks and Middle East buyers of U.S. Treasuries have an economic incentive to keep buying Treasuries as a means of instilling confidence in the American economy, Mr. Lascelles said. "There's no evidence people are choking on the bond supply." Wednesday, the yield fell 12 basis points to 1.45 per cent as the flight to safety continues.