Scott Barlow
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the Web
Even real estate brokers – a group of people not renowned for the objectivity – believe domestic housing prices will fall in 2017,
"The Ottawa-based Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents about 100 boards across the country, says national sales activity in 2016 will rise 6.2 per cent from a year earlier to 536,700 and set a record in the process. But 2017 will see a 3.3 per cent drop in sales and the average price of a home is expected to fall by 2.8 per cent to $475,900 after reaching a record $489,500 in 2016. The last time Canada saw a national home price decline was in 2008, although it was only 0.7 per cent drop.'
The group points to government regulations to cool foreign investment as the primary culprit.
"New forecast says record sales for 2016, but get ready for house prices to actually drop next year" – Financial Post
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A helpful research report list the world's most over-owned and under-owned stocks. The calculations are done relative to index weightings and there are some surprises. The most over-owned, overweight stock is Amazon and the most underweight is Apple. Exxon Mobil, General Electric and Berkshire Hathaway are also list as neglected stocks.
"@SBarlow_ROB UBS: the most overweight and underweight global stocks " – (including full list) Twitter
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A terrific post by Business Insider lists the best market charts of 2016 on a month by month basis. The biggest takeaway for me was the trend of "most important chart" one month becoming irrelevant a few weeks later.
"Here are the best charts about the markets and economy we saw in 2016" – Business Insider
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The Financial Times wrote a useful review of energy markets in 2016,
"Prices look set to end the year in the mid-$50s — about double the 13-year intraday low of $27.10 a barrel Brent touched in January — with hedge funds more bullish on oil than they have even been. A growing number of analysts and investors believe the cuts will reduce stockpiles, bringing supply and demand into balance more quickly next year. An arduous year-long process saw Opec return to the world stage and geopolitics again loom large in oil market policymaking. "2016 has shown us the return of Opec," says Jason Bordoff at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. "In a sharp break from the last two years members worked together, brought non-Opec countries on board, and their efforts culminated in action that was more pronounced and serious than most expected.""
"Oil in 2016: the return of OPEC" – Financial Times
"One Group of Oil Investors Didn't Cash In on the 2016 Rally" – Bloomberg
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Tweet of the Day: "@Bfly Why 2017 could be a great time to buy a used car - and a bad time to be in the auto business bloom.bg/2ioP8gN … " – Twitter
Diversion: "The best books of 2016 list you get when you combine 36 "Best Books of 2016" lists" – Twitter
Scott Barlow