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Markets seem to be prematurely claiming victory for the "remain" side in Britain's referendum before the polls have even closed, risking a potential dramatic reversal of sentiment should that confidence prove misplaced.

If British voters end up opting out of the European Union, markets globally are likely to react with extraordinary fear, according to BMO Nesbitt Burns chief investment strategist Brian Belski.

A risk-on attitude was evident around the world on Thursday as Britons cast their votes. In North America, Europe, and Asia, major stock indexes posted significant gains, with the S&P 500 trading above the 2,100 level in afternoon trading. Prices for safe havens like gold and treasuries, which have risen on Brexit fears in recent weeks, fell accordingly.

"Although the smart money says 'remain, we believe the possibility of a 'leave' should be taken seriously," Mr. Belski said in a note.

"Should a 'leave' vote prevail, we believe markets will likely react in a severe negative fashion over the near term. In fact, based on investor sentiment and perceived implications, we believe the environment could be eerily similar to that of late summer 2011."

Then, with markets already fearful over European sovereign debt concerns, Standard & Poor's historically stripped the U.S. of its top credit rating, sending equities into a nosedive. Over two weeks in the summer of 2011, the S&P 500 index fell by 17 per cent. While Canada retained its AAA-rating, Canadian stocks closely tracked the U.S. selloff.

Then, as now, markets were grappling with an unprecedented event that had unclear economic and financial implications.

"The weakness proved to be an excellent buying opportunity when calmer heads prevailed and investors realized the world was not headed into an economic black hole," Mr. Belski said. "As such, we believe any Brexit-related weakness should be viewed as an excellent buying opportunity, particularly considering that U.S. economic trends are a bit better this time around."

Manufacturing trends historically have a close relationship with fluctuations in equity prices, Mr. Belski said. And over recent months, new orders have been rising relative to inventories, suggesting that manufacturing activity should continue to rise in the months ahead.

This is a more positive economic backdrop than in the summer of 2011, Mr. Belski said. "Therefore, we believe the rebound from any Brexit-related weakness could be much stronger than the one exhibited during 2011."

And that was no slouch of a rebound. After the market bottomed shortly after the downgrade, the S&P 500 index advanced by 25 per cent over the following year.

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