Scott Barlow
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the Web
I wrote "The end of the oil glut" yesterday highlighting the Energy Information Agency's argument that oil markets will be in balance in mid-2017. Friday morning, Reuters cited Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak as agreeing with this forecast while casting doubt on more optimistic estimates that the supply and demand gap would close sooner,
"Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on Thursday that the global oil surplus stood at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and that the market might not balance out until the first half of 2017… "This (the forecast that the market won't balance until the first half of 2017) is an optimistic forecast as oversupply persists and the decline in production volumes is slower than analysts expected," he said."
"Russia's Novak: Global oil market won't balance before H1 2017" – Reuters
"The end of the oil glut" – Barlow, Inside the Market
See Also: "Oil at $45 a Barrel Proving No Savior as Bankruptcies Pile Up" – Bloomberg
"Big Oil Gobbles Up Record Debt as Borrowing Costs Decline" – Bloomberg
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Jeffrey Gundlach was crowned the new Bond King after Bill Gross departed PIMCO for Janus Capital. Mr. Gundlach outlined his forecast for U.S. interest rates in a presentation yesterday,
"Yields will rise over the next decade, said Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, in a webcast Thursday. U.S. 30-year yields will climb past 6 percent, he said, from 2.58 percent Friday. The DoubleLine Core Fixed Income Fund returned 2.9 percent in the past 12 months, beating 57 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show."
The ongoing global investing environment of slow growth and ultra-low, sometimes negative government bond yields makes Mr. Gundlach's outlook surprising. If he's right, Canadian investors will need to make wholesale changes to their portfolios in the coming years – domestic bond yields inevitably follow U.S. yields and this will motivate a mass exodus out of dividend and income investments.
"Gundlach Sees 50% Odds of Fed Move as Treasury Volatility Falls" – Bloomberg
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U.S. retail sales data provided a welcome upside surprise this morning at 8:30 a.m. signalling across the board strength in consumption. This will come as a surprise to share holders of department stores, as they report consistently miserable profit growth.
" @ReutersJamie US retails sales +1.3% in April, way above expectations, highest in over a year. Joint-second best month in 6 years. pic.twitter.com/GGa43NGMsd " – Twitter
"JCPenney shares plummet 12% after comparable store sales unexpectedly fell 0.4%" – Yahoo! Finance
"Macy's, Kohl's And Nordstrom Prove Department Store Model Is on the Way Out" – The Street
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Tweet of the Day: "@jason_kirby Further to @trevortombe's tweet re: real estate dominance twitter.com/trevortombe/st… it (and finance) saved Ontario... pic.twitter.com/jxpxKdH1nX " – Twitter
Bonus Tweet of the Day: "@ReutersJamie The explosion of ETFs post-crisis in one chart, from BAML pic.twitter.com/FlIClSNdtc " – Twitter
Diversion: I don't know how anyone can argue we're in an era of a "Great Stagnation" in innovation when someone invents a glow in the dark toilet.
"Navigate Your Bathroom at Night With GlowBowl, Now Just $17" – Kinja Deals
Scott Barlow