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A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the World Wide Web.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. chairman Murray Edwards believes the West Texas Intermedia crude oil benchmark price could fall to $30 (U.S.) per barrel. Like Marketwatch's Shawn Langlois, I think this is an exercise in excessive downward extrapolation. Mr. Edwards does believe, to be fair, that such a severe drop in the commodity price will only be temporary, followed by a stabilization in the $70 to $75 per barrel range.

The $70 mid-term projection makes sense in that it is roughly the break-even level for oil production in the Permian and Bakken regions. At today's $66 per barrel, these operations are not profitable and will soon slow production, reducing supply and eventually supporting the WTI price.

"When an oil man sees $30 a barrel, it's time to sound contrarian alarms" – Marketwatch

"At current prices Bakken and Permian Basin are in the red" – Sober Look

The "$30 oil" prediction is the eyecatcher of the day but the absolute must read for Canadian investors is professor Andrew Leach's analysis of profitability for the oil sands in Macleans. Mr. Leach calculates that profit margins in oil sands mines will be under severe stress if bitumen and WTI prices remain where they are. In the case of Suncor 's massive Fort Hills operation, rates of return fall from 18 per cent at the company's current assumptions on commodity prices to a far more meagre 10.6 per cent at current levels.

The professor also highlights the important implications for future investment and the Alberta economy. "If [current] trends continue, there's reason to expect that new investment decisions on the projects that were expected to lead to further production growth later this decade may be delayed."

"Is it time to panic in the oil sands?" – Leach, Macleans

U.S. Black Friday shopping statistics showed an alarming 11 per cent year over year decline but personally I'm not reading too much into it. U.S. shoppers are increasingly buying online and have also learned to play chicken with retailers, holding back until the last minute to get the biggest bargains. It seems like every year there's initial panic in the retail sector and then everything turns out okay.

"Black Friday fizzles with consumers as sales tumble 11 per cent: Retail" – Bloomberg

Last December, I wrote a post called "Five Bold Predictions in 2014" and went out on a limb by suggesting that the profit outlook for the big domestic banks will come under question. The ROB's Tim Kiladze backed this up with a recent post suggesting that the big five banks are bracing for harder times and playing defense by cutting costs and slashing unprofitable businesses.

"After a record run of profits, Canada's Big Six banks brace for shift" – Kiladze, Report on Business

Yahoo! Finance's Brian Lund highlights a labour and technology dilemma that for me is a microcosm of what developed world economies will face, over and over, in the coming decades. Mr. Lund describes labour action at the port of Los Angeles where workers are protesting the automation of port facilities, which threatens their jobs. Only a few miles away, however, Amazon.com has just opened a fully automated, highly efficient warehouse facility.

In a broad economic sense (we'll get to inequality issues in a minute), the wealth of a nation is a function of productivity gains. Technology advancement is among the best ways to achieve this. The workers at the port are resisting change for understandable reasons, but are also curbing the wealth potential for the U.S. economy.

Over the long term, I believe that some form of a basic income guarantee – everyone is assured of a minimum standard of living, not an archaic, monotonous job – is almost inevitable. It will allow technology and automation to improve aggregate wealth, while distributing the new wealth throughout the population. The transition will be difficult and a series of political and cultural/attitudinal minefields will have to be overcome, similar to the acrimony surrounding the creation of the welfare state in the 1930s and 1960s.

"I am Jeff Bezos and i am here to kill your union!" – Lund, Yahoo!

"The changing nature of work" – Piera

Tweet of the Day: @convertbond "Energy Companies Per Cent Make Up of the High Yield Junk Bond Market 2014: 15.6% 2010: 8.5% 2005: 4.6% 2000: 3.9% - Barclays"

Diversion: "How we got so stupid about our diets" – Vox

Follow Scott Barlow on Twitter @SBarlow_ROB

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