Naming the big winners in commodities in 2009 is easy: Base metals -- lead, copper, zinc, nickel -- and crude oil. Thanks, China!
Now, name your best bets for the next couple of years.
You should be looking at coking coal, oil, and potash and nitrogen fertilizers, according to Patricia Mohr, commodity market specialist at Scotiabank.
The annual contract price for Western Canada's premium-grade hard coking coal is likely to rise 32 per cent as supplies tighten, Ms. Mohr wrote in a report accompanying Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index report for November. The index strengthened 5.3 per cent, month-on-month, led by oil, forest products, metals and minerals.
Looking into her crystal ball for 2010, Ms. Mohr said crude oil consumption will be anchored by growing demand in China and India.
"WTI oil prices are expected to move towards the $90 (U.S.) mark in 2010, led by strong growth in consumption in 'emerging Asia' and the Middle East, supplemented by some recovery - but possibly only a partial recovery - in G7 demand after a steep drop from 2008 Q3 to 2009 Q2," Ms. Mohr said.
"Potash prices will end 2009 on a weak note, but should rebound as 2010 unfolds. 2010 will be a transition year for potash on the way to stronger market conditions in 2011."
If you're still interested in the troubled lumber sector next year, look for it to be "genuinely profitable" at times, as prices recover with U.S. housing starts. No such luck for natural gas, though, where a rally will quickly spur higher supply, keeping prices steady.
Copper is likely to "stay quite elevated through the first half of 2010" and rebound strongly in 2011, while Canadian iron ore producers should also benefit from firming prices for iron ore. Uranium, used for providing nuclear power, will also see "significant price improvement" in late 2010 or 2011.