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Lou Schizas, Schizas' mailbag
Lou Schizas, Schizas' mailbag

Lou's Mailbag

Alamos Gold tarnished by bullion's recent fall Add to ...

Hi Lou,

What is your take on Alamos gold and its new acquisitions. Do you have a suggested 12 month target for this one?

Thanks, Dale



Hi Dale,

Alamos Gold Inc. has had a great ride since October of 2008 when it hit the 52-week low of $3.50. But as with all things financial nothing goes up forever. Even great stories and prospects has to deal with externalities and investor expectations.

The externality that dominates the stock is the price of gold. The sell off in the commodity over the last two days washed out the news that the company had bought advanced stage deposits in Turkey.

You can see from the gold chart that the RSI and MACD both signaled a shift in momentum downward as the price retreated below the $1,000/ounce (U.S.) mark. The golden dream became the silver hook!

AGI announced that the deposits in the Bigu Gold Belt in Northwestern Turkey will help the company take their production from 160,000 - 170,000 ounces of gold in 2009 to over 400,000 ounces by 2013. Nothing wrong with that but its just over three years out and lots can happen in three months let alone three years.

The three year chart shows resistance at $11.00 (Canadian) which it will have to break through for AGI to advance further.

The three month chart shows the breach of the support at $10.00 more clearly and moreover a break below support on the 50 day moving average. It has done so before and recovered but that was as momentum was driving the price of gold higher.

There are lots of positive elements in the story from a fundamental and operational point of view. When AGI reported on their second quarter in August they reached record earnings as they grew production at their operations in Mexico and pushed down the cost per ounce. Management was able to do the two things you want as an investor. They grew the top line, cut cuts, and increased profits. Nice!

AGI also has a $100-million in cash and cash equivalents after the purchase of the properties in Turkey and they have no long term debt and no hedge programs in place.

I like the Alamos story but would be watching the direction of gold prices in the short term. I think there will be opportunities to find entry prices at lower levels.

Happy Capitalism!



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