Most investors cringe and run when they learn that the company they've invested in is abruptly changing course.
That explains why Fortress Paper shares were bruised last Friday, after the company announced that it was buying a pulp mill from a bankrupt operator in Quebec.
Fortress is a smart little company that literally makes money. To be precise, the company makes bank notes for Switzerland and euros for 10 countries. It also makes passport and other security papers. Plus it makes high-end wallpaper. It's been a great little investment, returning more than 100 per cent since it started trading less than three years ago and 300 per cent since it bottomed in the market crash a year ago.
At first glance, the pulp purchase looks like a change of strategy. While Fortress is technically in the paper business, it's nowhere near pulp on the food chain. No one wants pulp, which explains how the mill ended up in bankruptcy protection.
But this is not a change of strategy. It fits in very well with how Fortress has made such gains for investors, and analysts have figured it out, which is why the stock was up so much yesterday. If it works out – and CEO Chadwick Wasilenkoff told me yesterday that he thinks this is the best deal he's ever done – the stock has lots of room to rise.
While it's true that pulp demand is in decline as we consume less paper, demand for rayon is climbing briskly. Rayon is a substitute for cotton, and according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, cotton production is dropping, down by about a sixth in the past four years. The economics don't make sense for farmers who can make more by growing food or ethanol feed stocks.
Demand for cotton, meanwhile, is growing. But there isn't enough of it, so demand for rayon is climbing at about 7 per cent a year, according to Fortress.
