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Ron Meisels (Deborah Baic/The Globe and Mail)
Ron Meisels (Deborah Baic/The Globe and Mail)

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators performed well in 2010 Add to ...

Let’s look back on the performance of the 52 stocks recommended last year in our weekly column based on technical research. As usual, this report will cover a 12-month period from the beginning of December, 2009, to the same point in 2010, to allow last month’s suggestions time to mature.

Despite the mid-2010 weakness, this period was an excellent time to be in the markets. In fact, 39 of the 52 positions are still open or were closed in the money, for a success ratio of 75 per cent.

We covered a wide variety of prices, from $1.79 (Great Basin Gold Ltd. , ahead 54.2 per cent) to $79.47 U.S (Chevron Corp. , which was up 15.1 per cent). The materials sector provided both the best and the worst results – Nevsun Resources Ltd. with a 131.7 per cent gain and Plains Exploration and Production Co. with a 13.3 per cent loss.

The average gain was 16.4 per cent for all 52 positions, not including dividends, which means the portfolio outperformed both the S&P 500 Index (up 7.4 per cent) and the S&P/TSX Index (up 11.9 per cent).

Where will the ideas come from in 2011? North American markets could stay in a narrow trading range for the first month or so, but then could rise towards targets of 1,400 for the S&P 500 and 14,500 for Toronto by year-end.

This will make stock selection difficult as the year begins, but the Canadian resource sector should come to the rescue as gold begins another assault towards the $1,500 level.

Secondly, the majority of energy stocks seem to be gathering strength and we will probably pick a few ideas from this sector. Financials may stay weak, but some of the information technology stocks, such as Descartes Systems Group Inc. , Sierra Wireless Inc. , Celestica Inc. , Intel Corp. , Novell Inc. , that topped out in 2000 and stayed in a narrow trading range since then, could come to the fore.

Happy investing for 2011!

What the Charts Said in 2010

Buy Date

Recommended Company to buy

Ticker

Buy Price $

Jan 11, 2011 Price $

Price at close $

Closing Date

% chg

2009-12-5

Suncor

SU-T

37.91

38.24

0.9

2009-12-12

Sensient Technology

SXT-N

25.60

43.05

68.2

2009-12-19

Toromont Ind.

TIH-T

26.07

30.60

28.75

2010-4-19

10.3

2009-12-26

Lennar

LEN-T

13.36

19.10

43.0

2010-1-2

Rona

RON-T

15.45

14.85

15.20

2010-8-6

-1.6

2010-1-9

Chevron

CVX-N

79.47

91.44

15.1

2010-1-16

Shawcor

SCL.A-T

29.39

33.06

12.5

2010-1-23

MAG Silver

MAG-T

6.67

12.00

79.9

2010-1-30

Mosaic

MOS-N

53.51

77.13

44.1

2010-2-6

Gammon Gold

GAM-T

9.99

7.85

9.40

-5.9

2010-2-13

Bristol-Myers

BMY-N

23.91

26.06

9.0

2010-2-20

Cliffs Natural Res.

CLF-N

53.60

84.93

58.5

2010-2-27

Plains Exploration

PXP-N

32.81

32.78

28.45

2010-5-3

-13.3

2010-3-6

Great Basin Gold

GBG-T

1.79

2.76

54.2

2010-3-13

SNC-Lavalin

SNC-T

52.40

58.94

12.5

2010-3-20

Wal-Mart

WMT-N

55.34

54.41

52.60

2010-5-6

-5.0

2010-3-27

Galleon Energy

GO-T

6.76

4.04

5.90

2010-5-19

-12.7

2010-4-3

Agrium

AGU-T

70.99

91.27

28.6

2010-4-10

Jacobs Engineering

JEC-N

47.61

45.49

-4.5

2010-4-17

XTO Energy

XTO-N

47.67

takeover

46.48

2010-4-29

-2.5

2010-4-24

Helmerich & Payne

HP-N

43.21

49.22

13.9

2010-5-1

Colgate-Palmolive

CL-N

84.10

79.18

81.55

2010-5-14

-3.0

2010-5-8

99¢ Only Stores

NDN-N

14.23

15.65

16.50

2010-10-8

16.0

2010-5-15

Atco 'X'

ACO.X-T

48.32

59.25

22.6

2010-5-22

Rogers 'B'

RCI.B-T

36.00

34.66

37.90

2010-10-26

5.3

2010-5-29

Nevsun Resources

NSU-T

3.16

7.32

131.6

2010-6-5

Finning Int'l

FTT-T

17.46

27.67

58.5

2010-6-12

Home Depot

HD-N

32.22

34.56

7.3

2010-6-19

El Paso

EP-N

12.68

13.77

8.6

2010-6-26

Astral Media 'A'

ACM.A-T

35.77

41.49

16.0

2010-7-3

Nike

NKE-N

67.86

84.52

24.6

2010-7-10

Metro 'A'

MRU.A-T

43.00

45.27

5.3

2010-7-17

Enbridge

ENB-T

51.17

55.30

8.1

2010-7-24

Tim Hortons

THI-T

35.60

42.05

18.1

2010-7-31

Family Dollar Stores

FDO-N

41.35

44.99

8.8

2010-8-7

CNR

CNR-T

65.99

66.14

0.2

2010-8-14

Newmont Mining

NMC-T

58.94

58.07

63.36

2010-10-13

7.5

2010-8-21

CCL Industries 'B'

CCL.B-T

30.17

29.90

-0.9

2010-8-28

Fronteer Gold

FRG-T

8.39

10.73

27.9

2010-9-4

Cliffs Natural Resources

CLF-N

67.08

84.93

26.6

2010-9-11

YUM! Brands

YUM-N

44.52

48.57

9.1

2010-9-18

99¢ Only Stores

NDN-N

18.06

15.65

16.50

2010-10-8

-8.6

2010-9-25

Boardwalk Real Estate

BEI.UN-T

44.09

41.88

-5.0

2010-10-2

Clorox

CLX-N

67.00

61.94

63.75

2010-11-2

-4.9

2010-10-9

Agnico Eagle Mines

AEM-T

73.48

71.24

78.50

2010-12-16

6.8

2010-10-16

George Weston

WN-T

77.79

83.54

7.4

2010-10-23

Loblaw

L-T

42.46

39.72

-6.5

2010-10-30

Autonation

AN-N

23.22

28.19

21.4

2010-11-6

Alaska Air Group

ALK-N

55.88

59.11

5.8

2010-11-13

Forzani Group

FGL-T

15.97

18.30

14.6

2010-11-20

Sherwin Williams

SHW-N

73.38

82.60

12.6

2010-11-27

Fortis

FTS-T

31.86

34.06

6.9

Source: Phases & Cycles

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