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Number Cruncher

Firms with long-term upside in uncertain times

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

What are we looking for?

With the TSX cracking the 11,000 mark this week and stocks generally on the boil this year, we're trying to look a little further down the road to find companies the Street thinks are likely to deliver some solid earnings and revenue growth a year or two from now to back up some of the recent share price gains we've seen.

One of the reasons this is an interesting list to look at right now is that amid all the uncertainty about the direction of the global economy, many companies have decided to hold off on providing guidance, leaving analysts with less to work with as they built their models. In some cases, analysts have actually stopped providing forward estimates. The companies that made the cut here represent the ones that analysts are willing to go on the record for.

How the screen works

We used Capital IQ's database and stock screening engine to find TSX-listed companies with analyst coverage that included financial estimates at least two years out.

In an attempt to find the companies with the most compelling growth profiles, we looked at annual revenue growth and annual earnings per share (EPS) growth projections. In each case, we were looking for the companies analysts believe will deliver at least 10 per cent growth in each period.

Since there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, we've sorted the list by the estimated annual EPS growth for next year.

What did we find?

Once the numbers were well and truly crunched, 46 stocks made the cut.

We didn't filter out companies with negative earnings in their most recent fiscal year largely because their presence ended up being interesting given how many of them were in the commodities game.

Crew Gold CRU-T , Niko Resources NKO-T and Kinross Gold K-T were among the names that made the list despite their recent red ink.

Commodity companies in general are well represented on the list.

Another name that jumped out near the top was Manulife Financial MFC-T .

Its strong outlook stood out partly due to the lack of any other big names in the financial services or insurance sectors making an appearance.

Top earnings and revenue outlook
Company Ticker $ Price
Aug. 4
EPS before
extraordinary
items
(MRA) ($)
Revenue
(MRA) ($-mil)
Est. Annual
Revenue
Growth
1 Yr %
Est. Annual
Revenue
Growth
2 Yr %
Crew Gold Corp CRU-T 0.72 -3.21 293.7 101.0 112.3
Pethealth Inc. PTZ-T 1.15 0.00 26.3 38.2 60.6
Niko Resources NKO-T 75.99 -0.46 99.9 407.0 625.0
Canadian Hydro Developers KHD-T 4.97 0.01 84.8 72.5 130.4
Manulife Financial MFC-T 26.13 0.32 34,053.0 18.0 33.6
Xtreme Coil Drilling XDC-T 4.30 0.07 79.0 35.0 43.8
Aurizon Mines ARZ-T 4.14 0.03 137.2 14.5 20.4
Gammon Gold GAM-T 7.52 0.25 222.3 18.1 55.3
Solium Capital Inc SUM-T 1.20 0.02 17.3 19.8 35.9
Genesis Land Development GDC-T 1.43 0.20 83.8 34.7 36.4
IPL Inc. IPI.A-T 2.20 -0.17 191.7 17.5 23.3
Bridgewater Systems BWC-T 6.60 0.12 46.8 37.4 64.8
5N Plus VNP-T 6.84 0.22 31.5 131.0 189.2
Ag Growth International AFN-T 30.00 1.64 199.3 21.4 35.6
Capital IQ, Globe Investor
View Full Table »