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We have actualized our Q2/14 commodity prices, updated our forecast price decks and provided earnings estimates for companies under coverage.
While spring is typically seasonally slow for Canadian E&P's, mild weather saw fewer road bans and drilling activity well above average norms. As a result, we are anticipating stronger-than-budgeted Q2/14's from the oil-weights (namely CPG, CJ, RE, RMP, TET) and strong second half growth. Couple this with buoyant oil prices and we may see capital acceleration and increased programs from the likes of CPG, RE, TVE and TET or potential dividend increases from CJ, SGY and WCP.
A litany of third-party outages hampered gas production for some operators, with BXE, POU and NVA already telegraphing this to the market. The relatively cool (in the east) summer has put near term pressure on gas prices though we remain bullish on Canadian E&P's given the still glaring shortfall in Canadian storage and likely AECO-to-NYMEX premium.
WTI prices continued to outperform our expectations largely due to geopolitical events in Iraq, Libya and the Ukraine though a stronger Canadian dollar provided a partial offset from the Edmonton Par perspective. We continue to anticipate a declining WTI price amidst tempered global demand growth and burgeoning North American supply while the forecast weakening of the Canadian dollar is expected to provide an offset for our Canadian producers.
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